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9 early-round picks experts love to draft (2026 fantasy football)

FantasyPros · Jul 20, 2026 11:02 · 7 min read

9 Early-Round Picks Experts Love to Draft (2026 Fantasy Football)

The first five rounds of a fantasy football draft set the foundation for the whole season. Our analysts each picked their favorite value in every round of the early draft, going head-to-head to defend their picks. Here’s the full breakdown ... read more »

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Early-Round Picks Experts Love to Draft in 2026 Fantasy Football

Round 1: James Cook (RB – BUF)

James Cook was picked as the best value on the board at 11th overall, priced almost entirely off last year’s production rather than his upside. The case for a top-three running back season rests on four pillars, and Cook checks every one. He plays in a good offense, with Buffalo ranking top six in points per game and red zone scoring attempts per game over the last three years. He has elite volume, having led the entire NFL in rushing yards last year while finishing third in rushing attempts. He has real touchdown equity, with 14 and 18 touchdowns across his last two seasons, making a 20-touchdown season plausible. And with a new offensive coordinator who was never lower than 10th in running back target share during his previous tenure, Cook has a real path to significant passing-game involvement, something that’s been missing from his profile despite coming out of college as a receiving-focused back. Buffalo also doesn’t have a clear alpha receiver soaking up target share, leaving room for Cook to be the offense’s second or third-leading pass catcher in a given week.

A supporting note on the efficiency side: Cook actually posted more fantasy points per game last year despite scoring four fewer rushing touchdowns than the year before, because the extra volume came with better yards per carry and yards per reception, a detail that often gets overlooked when evaluating his season.

Round 1: Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)

The counter-pick was Puka Nacua, ranked as the top overall wide receiver ahead of the field’s other top options. Only two players outscored him in fantasy points per game last year, and neither was one of the running backs typically drafted with the first or second overall pick. The primary concern with Nacua isn’t his talent, it’s durability, with his profile increasingly compared to receivers who play through nagging injuries and create constant “is he out this week” anxiety for managers. Even so, he played close to a full season and projects as a repeat top wide receiver.

There’s also real touchdown upside layered on top of an already elite receiving profile. Nacua has never had an outlier touchdown season, and if his team’s red zone usage shifts more in his direction, a season with 10 to 14 receiving touchdowns is realistic, a outcome that would make him one of the most dominant fantasy assets at any position.

Both picks reflect the same underlying idea: Cook and Nacua aren’t really competing for the same roster spot. The true first-round running backs occupy their own bracket above Cook, while Nacua sits in the flat top tier at receiver, making him a premium pick regardless of which running back is on the board.

Round 2: A.J. Brown (WR – NE)

A.J. Brown was the round two pick, built on a significant situational upgrade. His new offense ranked ninth in neutral passing rate last year, compared to his old offense’s 15th-ranked mark, and that gap could widen further with continued quarterback development, a new star receiver alongside him, and a tougher schedule that should force more passing. Brown’s per-route numbers remain elite: ninth in target share, 17th in yards per route run, eighth in first read share, and top 20 in both first downs per route run and route win rate among qualifying receivers. He’s far from washed.

The touchdown case is just as strong. His old team ranked 32nd in red zone passing rate last year, while his new team ranked 15th in that same metric, and Brown projects as the clear go-to red zone target in his new offense. A supporting stat check backs this up: since his new quarterback’s first career start, that quarterback ranks top five to top 10 in several downfield passing efficiency categories, and Brown himself ranks top five to top 10 in the same categories on throws of 20-plus air yards over the last two seasons, pairing two elite downfield performers in the same offense.

Round 2: Chase Brown (RB – CIN)

Chase Brown was the counter-pick, viewed internally as a true first-round talent despite a far lower market price. The comparison drawn is directly to James Cook: all it takes is the offense clicking and staying healthy for Chase Brown to replicate what Buffalo got out of Cook two seasons ago. He’s hovered around 200 carries with modest touchdown efficiency, which may simply be his profile long-term, but his receiving role (with real 60-to-70-catch potential) means he doesn’t need heavy rushing touchdown totals to be a difference maker. With his team doing little to add competition in the backfield this offseason, a path to roughly 300 total touches is realistic, and 300 touches alone is usually enough to guarantee back-end RB2 value regardless of surrounding context.

Round 3: Colston Loveland (TE – CHI)

Colston Loveland is currently going closer to the fourth round in ADP, but the case here is that he’ll settle into a firm third-round price by the time draft season peaks, similar to how the market was slow to catch up on Trey McBride‘s ascension a year ago. Over a five-week stretch late last season, Loveland’s usage (a 25.6% target share, nearly 82 receiving yards per game, and elite per-route efficiency marks) would have ranked first or better in most major categories if extrapolated across a full season among all qualifying tight ends. Compared directly against Trey McBride‘s full 2025 season and Brock Bowers‘ full 2024 season on a per-route basis, Loveland’s five-week sample outperformed both. If he sustains anything close to that level over a full season, he’s firmly in the conversation for the overall tight end one spot.

One analyst’s personal season-long projections actually had Loveland finishing as the number one overall fantasy player at any position, a result that surprised even the person running the projections.

Round 3: Kyren Williams (RB – LAR)

Kyren Williams was the counter-pick, a player who’s kept sliding further down draft boards each offseason despite finishing as a top-10 running back in fantasy points per game last year. Much of the hesitation traces back to a well-known backfield split with a rookie teammate, but the full-season split was closer to 65-35 in Williams’ favor, not the even split many assume. Even in the stretch when the split narrowed most, Williams’ receiving role actually improved, out-targeting his teammate significantly over that span while still retaining the valuable short-yardage and goal-line work. Even in that tighter-split second half, he still finished as a top-seven running back. Getting that level of production at a third-round price is viewed as a clear value, and it’s part of the reason one analyst passed on a true workhorse running back in round one, betting on being able to find a strong value like this one three rounds later.

Both analysts like Kyren Williams here, with one calling him a “great call” for anyone drafting him in this range, alongside the belief that Loveland’s upside case runs well ahead of the rest of the tight end field.

Round 4: Jaylen Waddle (WR – DEN)

Jaylen Waddle was picked using essentially the same situational-upgrade logic as A.J. Brown: he’s moving from a run-heavy context to a offense that ranked fourth in neutral passing rate and fourth in pass attempts last year, trailing only three other teams. If the new coaching staff pushes the offense toward a faster, more up-tempo style as has been speculated, the volume could climb even further. Waddle stayed healthy for essentially the entire season last year, missing only the finale with a minor injury, and graded top 12 in every major per-route metric tracked, trailing his new teammate in just one category by a fraction of a percentage point. With the passing attack expected to condense around just two clear focal points this year, Waddle projects as the offense’s unquestioned wide receiver one.

Round 4: Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS)

Terry McLaurin was the counter-pick, sitting in an almost identical ADP range as Waddle. The preference here comes down to target-share ceiling: McLaurin’s worst-case target competition still leaves him with a strong floor, while his best case could push into the high-20s percentage range given how thin the target competition around him currently looks. Even in his worst season last year, playing through a compromised quarterback situation, McLaurin still averaged over nine fantasy points per game. In his better seasons, he’s topped 120 to 130 targets while averaging over 11 fantasy points per game, a level that would make him a clear top-20 receiver again if he simply returns to his established baseline.

Round 5: David Montgomery (RB – HOU)

Both analysts landed on the exact same player in round five: David Montgomery. The comparison drawn is to a well-known volume-driven veteran back from a couple of seasons ago, someone who wasn’t reinventing the position but produced simply by handling a massive workload. Despite carrying a reputation as a low-efficiency, “dead zone” style runner, Montgomery ranked 12th in yards after contact per attempt and 12th in first downs per route run last year, evidence that the talent underneath the volume is real.

The floor case is just as strong as the ceiling case. Even in a worse offensive context, worst case he’s simply a more efficient version of the backup running back he’s replacing, while inheriting that backup’s full workload, a role that projected to roughly 300 touches over a similar stretch last season. Historically, 300 touches alone is close to a guarantee of back-end RB2 value regardless of surrounding talent or scheme. His current ADP is also barely higher than where he was going last year as a clear backup, suggesting the market hasn’t fully caught up to his expanded role yet. Both analysts independently landed on him as the best value of the round.

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