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For most sports and golf fans, the PGA TOUR season effectively ended last week after The 154th Open Championship, golf's final major of the year. However, there are no weeks off for us golf-betting degenerates, and the money won at this week's 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities in Blaine, Minnesota, is still green.
TPC Twin Cities is a classic Midwest birdie-fest designed by Arnold Palmer, where low scores are mandatory. With water hazards lurking on 15 holes, driving accuracy and precise iron play are crucial. While the bentgrass greens are gentle, spraying off the tee guarantees a fast ticket home.
Somehow, 3M convinced World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler to fly from England to Minnesota, where he will make his tournament debut. Maybe Scottie wants to break out of his slump; after all, he hasn't won since the first event of the season: The American Express. Or perhaps 3M just made Scheffler an offer he couldn't refuse.
Like Scottie, I've only hit one outright this season, and I'm hoping for better luck in Minnesota this week. Despite Scheffler cashing a top-five bet for me at last week's British Open, I still lost 2.52 units (u), bringing my 2026 PGA TOUR balance to -53.52u. All this means is that I'm due. Without further ado, here are my horses for the course for TPC Twin Cities.
The following odds are based on my previous bets on the golfers listed below. Subject to change.
🇯🇵 Hideki Matsuyama +3604 at Polymarket (0.55u) and Top-10 with ties +295 at Kalshi (0.5u)
🇺🇸 Ben Kohles +7400 (0.27u) and Top-20 with ties +225 (0.5u), both at DraftKings
🇩🇰 Rasmus Neergaard-Peterson +7884 at Polymarket (0.25u) and Top-20 with ties +252 at Kalshi (0.5u)
🇿🇦 Casey Jarvis +8233 (0.24u) at Polymarket and Top-20 with ties +239 at DraftKings (0.5u)
🇦🇷 Emiliano Grillo +10000 at DraftKings (0.2u) and Top-20 with ties +310 at Kalshi (0.5u)
The bottom line is Hideki is by far the second-best player in this field and his odds should be below +2000. He has been all over the place with his driver this season. Still, he has gained strokes on the field in driving accuracy in three straight starts: U.S. Open (major), the Travelers Championship ("signature event") and The Open Championship (major).
Matsuyama’s TPC Twin Cities record is nothing to brag about — T7 in 2019, withdrew in 2022 and T30 in 2023 — but at least he has experience here. There are plenty of birdie opportunities at TPC Twin Cities, as long as you don’t hit into one of the many bodies of water, and these greens are easy. Hideki has gained strokes putting in five of his last six starts, per DataGolf.com, and three of the four majors this year (The Masters, PGA Championship, British Open).
Believe it or not, this winless jabroni is first in my model at Bet The Number. Granted, driving accuracy and iron play are my two most important skills for my 3M Open model, and Kohles leads the field in driving accuracy over the last 40 rounds and ranks second in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach. Yet, it’s still ridiculous to see him ahead of Scottie.
Nevertheless, Kohles ranks 19th in this field for SG: Putting over the last 12 rounds, per Bet The Number, which is his biggest weakness. He could’ve, should’ve won the 2026 John Deere Classic a few weeks ago but choked it away with a double bogey on the final hole to finish T3.
That said, I'm choosing to look at that as a good thing because he got into contention, and you need to be in it to win it. Lastly, a lot of longshots have won the 3M Open and Kohles’ game fits TPC Twin Cities, making anything above +6000 a "good number."
A prodigious driver, Rasmus has gained strokes off-the-tee in 12 consecutive starts, per DataGolf.com, including The Masters, PGA Championship and British Open. He’s made six straight cuts, with his best finish in a single-person event being a T9 at last week’s Open Championship.
Neergaard-Peterson has gotten in the mix at other high-profile events, such as a T3 at the 2025 DP World Tour Championship in November, followed by a win at the 2025 Crown Australian Open a month later.
According to Bet The Number, which only factors in PGA TOUR shot-link data, the Dane ranks 12th in this field in SG: Putting over the last 12 rounds. Bombers who have a hot putting week have won five of the seven 3M Opens, and Neergaard-Peterson fits that mold.
This is one of the most random golf bets I’ve ever made, which is saying a lot. I’ve never seen Jarvis play before, and he’s not even a full-time PGA TOUR pro. But I saw he had +5652 odds at Bookmaker at the time of writing, which is way off-market from the legal U.S. sportsbooks and prediction markets. That’s significant because Bookmaker is considered a "sharp sportsbook" for golf betting.
After seeing that Jarvis was steamed at Bookmaker, I wanted to figure out why. Surprisingly, the South African ranks second on the DP World Tour this year in stroke average and has two wins. Before you poo-poo his DP World Tour standing, know that those rankings include Rory McIlroy, Viktor Hovland, Patrick Reed and Tommy Fleetwood, among other full-time PGA TOUR pros.
Furthermore, Jarvis finished T21 at the Genesis Scottish Open two weeks ago, a co-sanctioned event between the PGA TOUR and DP World Tour, and T6 last week at The Open Championship. Jarvis is only 22-years-old, so maybe he can actually play. At this price, in this weak field, I’m willing to take a shot on him.
TPC Twin Cities is Grillo’s Happy Place. Here is his record in the 3M Open: T20 last year, T24 in 2024, T10 in 2023, T2 in 2022, missed cut in 2021 and T3 in 2020. The Argentinian is 12th on TOUR this season in driving accuracy and has gained strokes on the field in driving accuracy in his six appearances at TPC Twin Cities.
Grillo is a notoriously weak-to-inconsistent putter, but he’s gained strokes on the greens in five of his six 3M Opens and three straight starts heading into TPC Twin Cities, including at Shinnecock for the U.S. Open, which has one of the most difficult green complexes in the world.
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As you can tell by my season-long record, it’s tough to win a golf tournament. However, Emiliano loves this course, and he should perform better than his odds suggest and at least finish in the top 20.
Mayo Cup season standings: 4,482nd with $5,146,536
Who cares? I'm dead in this contest, and I'd need the first place for this tournament to be worth four times as much to make any notable improvement in the standings. But, rather than be a coward and omit this section, I'll own up to my garbage season in golf betting and play all the holes.
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Follow me on X @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my "OutKick Bets Podcast" for more betting content and random rants.
Original article source: 3M Open 2026 best bets: Five golfers who can upset Scottie Scheffler at TPC Twin Cities this week
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