World Cup hangover hits US economy, but consumer still has legs, Yardeni Research says

Two recent tailwinds for the U.S. economy are beginning to fade, though the underlying strength of the U.S. consumer remains intact, according to Yardeni Research.

Yardeni also said the stimulus from tax refunds is fading. Under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, total tax refunds to households rose 18.1% year over year to $324.8B, putting nearly $50B of additional cash into consumers' pockets.

The firm said it is not concerned by the fading support, adding that seven years into its "Roaring 2020s" scenario, the underlying pulse of the U.S. economy and American consumer remains strong.

Redbook same-store retail sales growth cooled to 8.0% year over year in the week ended July 17, extending a pullback from exceptionally strong gains during the World Cup, Yardeni said. Despite the moderation, the firm said sales growth remains robust by historical standards.

Here is the chart: