Will American Express or Verizon come out as an earnings winner?

Both American Express (NYSE:AXP) and Verizon Communications (NYSE:VZ) report Q2 2026 results before market open on Friday, July 24, 2026, with Verizon's earnings call confirmed for 8:30 AM ET. For a retirement-focused investor deciding which name to hold into the earnings report, the question is simple: which one is Wall Street actually leaning into? The setup favors two very different profiles. American Express trades at $348.74 with a 22 P/E, while Verizon trades near $44.29 at an 11 P/E. Here is how they stack up across three dimensions that matter this week.

Dimension 1: Analyst Consensus and Buy-Side Tilt

American Express carries 14 Buy, 15 Hold, and one Sell ratings, a modest lean toward neutral with a single dissenter. Verizon's coverage skews cleaner on the downside: 11 Buy, 15 Hold, and zero Sell ratings. No sell-side analyst is telling clients to exit Verizon, and that matters for a retirement holder who cares about tail risk in the coverage universe. American Express has more outright Buys, but the presence of a Sell and a heavier Hold cluster tempers conviction.

Winner: Verizon. Zero Sell ratings versus one, with a similar Hold count, gives Verizon the cleaner buy-side floor.

Dimension 2: Price Target and Implied Upside

American Express has an analyst consensus target of $374.94, almost 8% higher than the current price, alongside an AI model target of $391.47, implying 12.25% upside. Verizon's consensus target is $51.12, with an AI model target of $49.99, implying 12.88% upside. On percentage upside to the model target, Verizon has a hair more room. On absolute dollar distance to consensus, American Express has further to travel. What tips the scale for a retirement investor: Verizon's year-to-date price performance is already +8.7%, while American Express is −5.7% year to date. Verizon is compounding into its target; American Express needs a re-rating.

Winner: Verizon. Slightly better model upside plus positive year-to-date momentum into the print.

Dimension 3: Sentiment Momentum and Beat Odds

Polymarket puts 88% odds American Express beats quarterly earnings and gives it 74.5% odds of clearing $19.5 billion in Q2 revenue net of interest expense. Verizon's beat probability is 85.5%, with a 94% probability of topping $34.5 billion in Q2 total operating revenue. American Express's composite sentiment reads 61.72, bullish with low confidence; Verizon reads 57.55, neutral with medium confidence but with a +9.39 30-day move. Recent insider activity shows net selling for both American Express and Verizon, with zero discretionary open-market buying reported for either company. Add in the earnings track record: American Express has exceeded EPS projections in four of the past five quarters, while Verizon has a five-consecutive-quarter EPS beat streak.

Winner: American Express. Higher beat odds and a higher composite sentiment score edge out Verizon's slightly better EPS track record.

The Verdict

The dimension tally is 2 to 1 for Verizon, but the weight of evidence points to American Express as the name Wall Street is actively leaning into this week. Verizon wins on analyst risk profile and upside math, and it wins for retirement investors who need current income now, backed by six straight EPS beats and 14.2% year-to-date gains. But for American Express, the crowd and prediction markets are pricing 88% beat odds, alongside a 14.7% one-year return and a 442.5% 10-year return. For a retirement investor with a decade or more of runway who can absorb consumer-cycle exposure, American Express looks like the more attractive option. For retirees who depend on the dividend arriving next quarter, Verizon is the safer choice. Risks to watch: credit normalization and tariff drag at American Express, and $172.5 billion in total debt plus wireless churn at Verizon.

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