SerpApi.Org
Israel is sitting it out as the conflict with Iran heats up again, a posture that suits the U.S., its Arab allies—and for now Israel itself.
The U.S. and Israel fought together closely when they launched the war on Iran in February, drawing on each others’ strengths in firepower, intelligence and logistics in an air campaign that had little precedent.
Now, the U.S. and regional officials are concerned Israel’s involvement would add a disruptive variable when they are trying to wring diplomatic concessions from Iran and avoid all-out war.
Washington has asked Israel to stay out of the fight for now, people familiar with the matter said.
The Persian Gulf’s Arab states are lobbying the U.S. to ensure that Israel doesn’t resume strikes on Iran, said Arab officials familiar with the discussion. They fear Israeli involvement would trigger a fierce response from Tehran that potentially targets their energy infrastructure, the officials said. It also would make it harder politically for Gulf states to join in the attacks on Iran themselves if necessary.
Regional mediators have joined the effort, arguing that Israel’s involvement would make it harder for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the paramilitary group that dominates decision-making in Iran, to return to peace talks.
“This is a fairly limited escalation right now, and all sides know there’s a path back to the negotiation table,” said Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at the School of Security Studies at King’s College London. “If you bring the Israelis into this, it could become a real mess.”
Asked for comment, an American official said the U.S. remained in close coordination with Israel and its Gulf allies.
U.S. and Israeli war aims diverged in the spring, as President Trump pushed for a diplomatic solution over concerns that energy-supply disruptions could sink the world economy. Israeli officials have complained that Trump stopped the war too soon, before they could inflict enough damage on Iran’s rulers and topple the Islamic government.
But events may have pivoted back Israel’s way with the collapse of a temporary ceasefire meant to open the Strait of Hormuz and initiate peace talks. The U.S. reimposed its blockade of Iranian shipping and has bombed Iran for the past 10 days, while Iran has fired on ships that it says don’t submit to its control over the waterway. About 20% of the world’s oil transited the strait before the war started.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has held talks about Iran with his ministers and security chiefs. Officials and analysts say the country is content for now to stand back and let economic pressure build on Iran’s leadership but would get involved if attacked.
“We must remember that our supreme goal in this campaign—and not necessarily jointly with the U. S.—is to undermine and weaken the regime’s existence,” Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a member of Netanyahu’s cabinet who attended the Iran security consultations, said Tuesday. “The best way to do this is to crush it economically. The current situation works to our benefit, and we have no interest in pushing ourselves in, but we are prepared for any scenario.”
Iran also appears eager to keep Israel out of the fighting. Tehran has focused its strikes on U.S. allies Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, where a missile attack on a base killed at least two U.S. servicemembers. So far, it has refrained from striking Israel.
Arab officials nevertheless remain concerned that it is only a matter of time before Israel re-enters the war.
There is the risk that fighting in the region could escalate and pull it in. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels, who fired missiles at Israel for more than two years, are threatening to blockade the Red Sea, which would cut off even more Gulf oil supplies.
It is also possible Trump would need Israeli help to launch a bigger attack or operation to bring an end to the stalemate. The U.S. has broadened its targets in Iran, hitting bridges and port infrastructure in recent strikes, and Trump has been briefed on options for escalating.
Throughout the war, however, Trump has pulled back toward negotiations after taking threats up to the brink. He has complained in public and in private that Netanyahu’s instincts for escalating have complicated his efforts to end the fighting in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran, The Wall Street Journal has reported. The president has told his advisers that no one can handle Netanyahu, who the president said wants to “bomb everyone,” according to a person who heard his comments, the Journal reported.
“The perception in the Trump administration is that Israel is a loose cannon,” said Elizabeth Tsurkov, a senior nonresident fellow at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, a Washington think tank. “Currently the logic is not to escalate, and when you put in a player that is a loose cannon in the mix, you lose control of the situation.”
The threat of an Israeli attack—held in reserve—gives the U.S. leverage as it tries to revive an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and advance nuclear talks, said Erez Winner, chairman of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, an Israel-based think tank with close ties to the current government.
Arab Gulf states are weighing whether Iran’s persistent attacks and control over Hormuz could require them to get involved in the fighting. If that comes to pass, most wouldn’t want to be seen as fighting alongside Israel, analysts said.
“It is really much better for the Israelis not to be seen as part of any de facto coalition,” said Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Institute, a Washington think tank.
Write to Dov Lieber at [email protected], Summer Said at [email protected] and Anat Peled at [email protected]