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About a third of all U.S. housing stock and nearly half the nation’s real estate wealth is held by baby boomers, a generation that is now approaching its sunset years and is expected to spark a “silver tsunami” once they downsize, sell, or leave their homes to their children and relatives.
But as the housing market remains largely stuck while navigating what experts consider “unprecedented” times in the nation’s history, with high costs keeping many buyers away, the future of these homes is uncertain.
Daniel Foch, podcaster and chief real estate officer at Canadian real estate brokerage Valery, recently wrote on X: “The largest generation in history needs to sell the most expensive houses in history to the most indebted generation in history. What could go wrong?”
Gen X is currently the most indebted generation in the U.S. by total average household debt, carrying roughly $158,105 per person, according to data by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, followed closely by millennials with an average of $132,280 per person. The figure for Gen Zers is $34,328, but student loans and credit card bills are rapidly driving up their debt.
Because of rising housing costs and mounting debt, young people are struggling to become homeowners. In 2025, baby boomers represented 42 percent of homebuyers on the U.S. market, while Gen Z and millennials represented only 4 percent and 26 percent respectively, according to data by the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The average age of America’s first-time homebuyers, meanwhile, has reached a record high of 40.
The “silver tsunami” or the “Great Transfer” of real estate wealth set to happen by the 2030s has been touted as a potential solution to the current housing affordability crisis. But as this transfer now starts to unfold, experts are raising doubts about whether it would be a real way to fix the problem.
First of all, once baby boomers’ homes finally land on the market they might struggle to find buyers who can afford them. But even more importantly, these homes might not be a good fit for those willing to purchase them.
“Baby boomers own large homes that are decades old,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, told Newsweek. “These homes will be suitable for millennials with young children, but they may have significant deferred maintenance and require renovations.”
On top of that, baby boomers might free up homes in parts of the country that are less appealing to younger generations busy building their careers and forming their own families.
“The homes located in job centers will be the most valuable, however, the homes located in retirement destinations or exurbs far from jobs will be difficult to sell and could drop in value,” Fairweather said.
Baby Boomers’ Dominance in the U.S. Housing Market Explained
Baby boomers hold between $18 trillion and $19 trillion in housing value across the U.S., nearly half the nation’s real estate wealth. That figure represents decades of homeownership, reached when buying a home was more affordable than it is now, and rising property values.
It also represents “tens of millions of homes set to change hands over the next couple of decades,” Hannah Jones, senior economist at Realtor.com told Newsweek.
Most of these homes, according to Jones, “look like the ‘typical’ American home: mid-priced, mid-sized family houses—the kind bought 30-plus years ago and lived in ever since,” she said.
In fact, baby boomers own 28 percent of the total stock of homes with three or more bedrooms, according to Redfin data, and two in five have owned their home for more than 20 years.
Not all of these homes are equally valuable. The generation’s real estate wealth is concentrated in a handful of metropolitan areas that appeal to retirees, most of which are in Florida and coastal California, according to a recent analysis by Realtor.com.
Considering the share of homeowners aged 65 and up, the total value of homes in each market, and the estimated value held by older residents, the real estate listing website found that five of the top 10 hotspots for boomers are in Florida, two are in California, one in Massachusetts, one in Arizona, and one in Hawaii.
In Sunshine State markets like North Port, Naples, Cape Coral, Deltona and Port St. Lucie, boomers are holding some of the most valuable pieces of the American housing pie.
But destinations that are appealing to retirees for their warm weather, friendly tax environment, and slow lifestyle might not be as attractive to the younger generation.
The ‘Great Transfer’ Might Not Be As ‘Great’ As We Thought
Between 2026 and 2027, nearly 12,000 people a day in the U.S. are set to turn 65, according to U.S. Census Bureau data cited by Realtor.com. That means that the “silver tsunami” experts were expecting is already happening—though it is not the huge, sudden wave many were foreseeing.
“It will be gradual but noticeable,” Fairweather said of the so-called “Great Transfer” of housing wealth among generations.
“Neighborhoods will slowly change. In cities like Los Angeles you will notice single-family homes being converted to multi family housing. In retirement destinations you will see an increase in homes for sale and homes sitting vacant,” she added.
The homes located in job centers will be the most valuable, according to Fairweather.
“The older homes located on highly valuable land in places that have been zoned for dense housing will likely be sold to developers, demolished and replaced with multi-family housing,” she said. “However, the homes located in retirement destinations or exurbs far from jobs will be difficult to sell and could drop in value or sit vacant.”
These homes will likely drop in value until the owners accept a low price, or they will stay vacant, Fairweather said.
“The turnover and redevelopment of housing on the coasts will allow younger generations to affordably live in the most desirable cities. However, in the exurbs and retirement destinations home values could drop, impacting the real estate value of existing homes, even for younger owners,” she said.
Jones also warned not to expect a “silver tsunami,” saying boomers will release their wealth slowly, over many years.
“People’s finances, health, support systems, and lifestyles all differ, so boomers will release their wealth and homes at different times and through different means, including inheritance, downsizing, sale, and so on,” she said.
“Reinforcing that pace, more boomers are choosing to ‘age in place,’ staying in their homes longer and further stretching out the timeline,” she added.
No matter how long it takes or how it will happen, baby boomers freeing their homes will help ease the ongoing affordable housing shortage in the country. While figures differ, estimates range between a 4 and 10 million-unit deficit.
“As boomer-owned homes trickle onto the market, or pass directly to the next generation, they should help ease that shortage, letting inventory turn over at a more normal pace again,” Jones said.
“Even if these specific homes aren’t what younger buyers want, they can still free up the market: a buyer purchasing one of these homes releases their own home for sale, kicking off a chain that eventually surfaces more affordable options elsewhere,” she added.
This is true especially for those parts of the country that have not seen significant supply growth in recent years.
“Regionally, this could ease some pressure in expensive markets like the Northeast and California, where limited inventory has long been a barrier to homeownership,” Jones said. “As older homeowners in these areas eventually sell, that added supply could help more buyers get a foothold in markets that have felt largely locked up for years.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Ben Kelly and Tony Phillips
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