What will Tesla say during their next earnings call? – Kalshi

Bettors on prediction market platform Kalshi are increasingly confident that Tesla (TSLA) executives will mention “Powerwall” during the company's upcoming earnings call, with odds climbing to approximately 61%.

According to Kalshi, these odds have risen significantly from around 41.6% last week. The Tesla Powerwall 3 is an all-in-one residential solar battery featuring a built-in hybrid inverter, 13.5 kWh of usable capacity, and 11.5 kW of continuous power output, with installation costs typically ranging between $13,500 and $16,200 before solar incentives.

Meanwhile, expectations for discussion of the next-generation Tesla Roadster have cooled on the prediction market. Kalshi data shows approximately 46% of bettors believe executives will say “Roadster” during the call, down from around 53% at the end of last week. The highly anticipated all-electric supercar has faced years of delays, with production now expected in 2027 or 2028.

Perhaps the most dramatic shift on Kalshi involves potential merger talk. The odds that Tesla (TSLA) executives will say “merge” or “merger” during the earnings call have surged to approximately 43%, a sharp increase from around 15% at the end of last week.

According to Kalshi, this spike comes as rumors of a merger between Tesla and SpaceX intensify.

Financial analysts have weighed in on the speculation, with JPMorgan and Morningstar both highlighting the strategic logic of combining the two companies.

Analysts note that uniting Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX (SPCX) would logically integrate AI, robotics, and aerospace capabilities into a potential mega-conglomerate.