What history says about stocks that join the Nasdaq-100 and what it means for SpaceX

On July 7, Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX) was added to the Nasdaq-100, which comprises 100 of the largest nonfinancial companies listed on the Nasdaq.

Initially, some expected its inclusion in the index to be a short-term catalyst that would send the stock higher; exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that track the Nasdaq-100 needed to buy it. For example, SpaceX now makes up 1.1% of the portfolio weight of the Invesco QQQ Trust, which was the second-most traded ETF by trading volume as of March 31. However, that has not been the case. From July 7 to July 17, shares of SpaceX dropped 17%.

Historic patterns suggest that an early decline after inclusion in the index was likely. But those patterns suggest something different about where SpaceX could be headed over the next several months.

What the past tells us about entering the Nasdaq-100

Over the past two years, of the 21 stocks that were added to the Nasdaq-100, only six climbed in their first week in the index, according to Dow Jones Market Data data shared by Bloomberg. The average decline for stocks after that first week was 3.8%, but SpaceX fared worse than that with an 8.9% drop from July 7 to July 14.

Given a little more time, however, the stats start looking positive. One month after inclusion, the average stock had a 3.6% gain, and after three months, the average stock had a 6.3% gain.

That said, what happened to other recent additions to the Nasdaq-100 won't necessarily happen to SpaceX. Moreover, those average increases of 3.6% and 6.3%, respectively, are relatively minuscule. What SpaceX wants to accomplish, and any meaningful returns it could generate for shareholders, will happen further down the road.

SpaceX's long-term upside potential

SpaceX is known for its rocket launches and satellite deployments, but it has projected that $26.5 trillion of the $28.5 trillion total addressable market it could pursue is in artificial intelligence (AI).

Part of that opportunity lies in building out AI cloud computing infrastructure, which SpaceX is doing on the ground and eventually plans to do in orbit. SpaceX signed deals to rent out some of its compute capacity to Alphabet and start-up Anthropic, a pair of deals that could generate roughly $26 billion in combined annual revenue.

It also has a computing capacity deal with Reflection AI, a builder of open AI models, worth $150 million per month or $6.3 billion in total if the deal runs through 2029. Additionally, according to a July 17 report from The Wall Street Journal, SpaceX is in talks with the Department of Defense for computing capacity in a deal that could be worth several billion dollars.

That all could start adding up to meaningful revenue for SpaceX, which only generated $18.6 billion in sales in 2025. But those revenue sources above don't include SpaceX's potential to generate more sales and build out the future of AI infrastructure through satellite-based data centers; Musk says his company could deploy AI satellites as soon as 2028.

Some analysts are very bullish on SpaceX, with John Godyn of Citigroup placing a long-term price target (no specific time frame) of $900 per share on it. From the July 17 closing price of just under $124, that would be a gain of more than 625%.

The costs of being an AI leader

The infrastructure needed to be a leader in AI has cost SpaceX billions of dollars each year and will continue to do so. In terms of its 2025 capital expenditures, AI was easily the company's most costly segment.

Data source: SpaceX Form S-1.

Also, in just the first three months of 2026, SpaceX's total capital expenditures already reached $10.1 billion. Its losses are also climbing; SpaceX reported a $4.9 billion net loss for all of 2025 but has already racked up a $4.2 billion net loss after just the first quarter of 2026.

In addition to financial costs, SpaceX also faces a high bar to boosting its stock price, as it's already one of the world's most valuable companies by market cap. The expectations for the company are sky-high, and those are baked into its premium stock price, so it doesn't have much wiggle room if its quarterly results underwhelm.

Putting it all together

What's most important with SpaceX isn't how it will perform in the next few months. Rather, what's most important is how much of that $26.5 trillion total addressable market in AI it can capture, how it will handle the challenges of building space-based data centers, and how long it will take for the company to reach profitability.

Citigroup is an advertising partner of Motley Fool Money. Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Alphabet. The Motley Fool recommends Nasdaq. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.