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Global oil supplies face a growing list of disruptions, as a threat by Yemen’s Houthi militants to blockade Saudi Arabia began to take shape and Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s Black Sea shipping disrupted operations of a key pipeline there.
Two oil tankers loaded with Saudi crude oil turned around Tuesday. A successful blockade would open another front in the U.S.-Iran conflict and compound the disruption caused by Iran’s stranglehold on the Strait of Hormuz.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian efforts to cripple Russia’s war effort have disrupted crude oil shipments in the Black Sea and fuel production at Russian refineries.
The Trump administration urged Kyiv on Tuesday to curb attacks on non-Russian ships, according to a White House official, after a barrage of strikes on ships in the waters near the port of Novorossiysk. The attacks have disrupted flows through a pipeline that delivers Russian and Kazakh oil to the Black Sea. The pipeline is run by a consortium that includes Exxon and Chevron and carries almost 2% of the world’s oil.
International benchmark Brent crude rose by 2% to around $91 a barrel on Tuesday, the highest levels in weeks.
The Houthi blockade puts oil shipments at risk on the route Saudi Arabia is using to get most of its crude to market. The kingdom typically ships most of its oil out through the Persian Gulf, but Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz has forced it to pipe millions of barrels a day across the Arabian Peninsula and export them through the Red Sea port chokepoint of Bab al-Mandeb instead.
“Any disruption at Bab al-Mandeb would therefore threaten not only Saudi shipments but one of the few remaining routes capable of compensating for the severe reduction in Hormuz traffic,” said Jorge León, head of geopolitical analysis at consulting firm Rystad Energy.
The Houthis’ territory sits near the Bab al-Mandeb, which in Arabic means Gate of Tears and connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and Saudi Arabia’s supply routes to its main customers in Asia. The militant group has shut down the waterway repeatedly over the past three years by attacking and even sinking ships.
The Singapore-flagged Xin Long Yang and Liberia-flagged Rodos had loaded their oil at Saudi ports and were headed toward Bab al-Mandeb when they made U-turns and instead headed north toward the Suez Canal. Several other vessels including a vehicle carrier and an oil supertanker in the Gulf of Aden heading toward the Red Sea also made U-turns, according to financial data provider LSEG.
A Houthi military spokesperson had declared a maritime blockade of Saudi Arabia on Monday. The move came as frictions between the neighboring states have grown and as the U.S. ramped up pressure on Iran, which has threatened to close the Red Sea to put pressure on the global economy and get President Trump to back down.
The Houthis have been reinforcing their positions along the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb, deploying missiles and other armaments, and sticking to maximalist positions in efforts to negotiate a solution, Arab officials familiar the matter said. Saudi Arabia is highly concerned by the developments given the ease of shutting down traffic in Bab al-Mandeb, some of the officials said.
Some 12% of global seaborne oil passed through Bab al-Mandeb before the war.
Loadings at Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea port at Yanbu have averaged around 4 million barrels a day since the war began, up from around 1 million barrels a day before the war, León said. Of those, roughly 2.5 million barrels a day go south through Bab al-Mandeb, heading toward Asian buyers, he said. If a ceasefire doesn’t materialize and both Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb remain disrupted, the risk of a significant rebound in oil prices would be substantial, he said.
Trump brushed off concerns that a Red Sea blockade would spark a new Middle East conflict but said he would take action if the situation escalated.
“So far, it hasn’t happened,” Trump told reporters at the White House on Tuesday. “Might happen, but we take care of things.”
Trump launched a major military action against the Houthis in 2025 that ended after nearly two months with a simple ceasefire. While the U.S. military battered the group, it also lost several warplanes to accidents and had a number of close calls.
A simultaneous and prolonged disruption of Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz could affect maritime routes carrying one-quarter of global oil supply, analysts at ship tracker Kpler wrote in a Tuesday note.
Before the Houthis snarled traffic in the Red Sea beginning in October 2023 to support Hamas in the war in Gaza, the Bab al-Mandeb handled between 65 and 72 commercial vessel crossings a day, according to Kpler. The attacks cut that by half. Traffic recovered after the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire but never returned to precrisis levels, instead averaging around 45 crossings a day in early 2026, Kpler analysts said.
If Houthis keep targeting Saudi-linked or Saudi-bound vessels, traffic could fall by half from current levels. If the Houthi blockade catches up more than Saudi ships, crossings could fall even further, Kpler analysts said.
The Houthis previously established an application system allowing selective ship passage. Ships would send an email to the Houthi forces requesting permission several days in advance of crossing, crew members and maritime analysts said. That’s similar to the formalized system Iran is trying to impose on the Strait of Hormuz.
Vessels that don’t want to risk running into the Houthis could still enter and exit the Red Sea by going through the Suez Canal at the north end. But that would require a trip around Africa to get to Asia.
The Houthi announcement of a blockade should be treated as “a credible escalation, not routine rhetoric,” maritime risk company Marisks said in a note to clients on Monday, seen by The Wall Street Journal. “Companies maintaining regular Saudi trade should consider their exposure elevated, particularly for vessels calling at Red Sea ports.”
Write to Rebecca Feng at [email protected], Lara Seligman at [email protected] and Summer Said at [email protected]
