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When Elon Musk's Tesla reports earnings on Wednesday, investors will be listening closely for any updates on its robotaxis and Optimus robots. Those two projects are at the center of the company's long-standing AI ambitions, even as they have yet to take off.
Despite being in their infancies, robotaxis and Optimus are critical components of Tesla's valuation. Wall Street is betting that these two emerging fields will become huge businesses in the future.
TeslaTSLA stock fell more than 2% on Monday, after tumbling 6.6% last week, according to MarketSurge.
The total addressable market for robotaxis could be worth $1 trillion by 2040, while that for humanoid robots could be as high as $9 trillion by 2050, according to estimates from Morgan Stanley and Royal Bank of Canada.
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Tesla Earnings Take Back Seat
Hopes for robotaxis and robots are key to Tesla's valuation well above $1 trillion, even as earnings have fallen for three straight years. But on the flip side, Tesla's rebounding earnings in 2026 aren't moving the needle.
On July 2, Tesla reported 25% EV delivery growth in Q2, a blowout that crushed views and spurred upward revisions to earnings estimates. But Tesla stock fell sharply that day and have continued to trend lower.
"Strong auto and energy deliveries set Tesla up for a solid quarter, but we believe the key investor debate remains unchanged: Can robotaxi and Optimus progress quickly enough to justify an accelerating AI investment cycle?" wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco earlier this month in a research note titled "Show Us The Bots."
Tesla Robotaxis
Robotaxis and Optimus robots are in different phases of development. The former operates in four cities and with a relatively small fleet compared to Alphabet'sGOOGL Waymo. Meanwhile, Optimus robots are still unavailable to the public.
"Investor focus for (Tesla's second-quarter) earnings will remain on its robotaxi deployments, particularly the pace of fleet scaling and new markets," wrote Bank of America analyst Alexander Perry.
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In addition to expanding robotaxis to new cities, Tesla is also building the future of its service on being able to mass-produce its Cybercab. These new robotaxi-specific models don't have steering wheels or pedals.
Elon Musk's comments on Wednesday's Q2 conference call, set to start at 5:30 p.m. ET, will be key.
Tesla Optimus Humanoid Robots
In previous comments, Musk said Tesla's Fremont, Calif. factory would start making initial, limited batches of Optimus 3 robots by late July or early August. Designs for the next version, the Optimus 4, would be completed next year, he said in March.
Bank of America's Perry expects Tesla will ship 1.2 million Optimus units by 2030 and 10 million by 2035. Earlier this year, Tesla began reconfiguring the Fremont factory to produce Optimus robots instead of Model S and Model X cars. Tesla is building another plant in Texas to make the robots. On the April earnings call, Musk said Optimus was close to a public unveiling.
"The V3 Optimus design is almost ready to demonstrate, and I think we want to just make sure it's polished," Musk said on an investor call. "Like it works functionally, but there are some aesthetic elements that need to be finalized."
Musk added that, in his view, Optimus would be "the biggest product ever."
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