SerpApi.Org
Another day, another Trumpian tug at the fibres that stitch together the post-war world order.
Donald Trump, the US president, has approved a deal with Saudi Arabia to introduce a civilian nuclear power programme in the kingdom.
So far, so good. Joe Biden, his predecessor, had tried to do the same.
Nobody is begrudging the Saudis for wanting to diversify their energy sources. The neighbouring United Arab Emirates already generates a quarter of its power from nuclear reactors.
But the startling element of the deal, according to the reports, is that it may waive the usual safeguards that prevent states from weaponising civil nuclear programmes.
The UAE’s agreement to receive nuclear technology from the US included a clause titled “the Gold Standard”, which stops the Emiratis from enriching uranium or reprocessing spent nuclear fuel – the two pathways to building a bomb.
Instead, the UAE imports enriched uranium. But reports suggest the deal may permit the Saudis to enrich the fuel inside their own borders.
That might be acceptable, if it were kept under close supervision. However, it has also been suggested that the US-Saudi pact may not include the all-important “additional protocol”.
Under this clause, the country in question accepts the right of the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency to monitor its nuclear programme.
The Vienna-based agency can swoop in, without notice, and inspect any nuclear facility, including those the host country may not have formally declared.
If Mr Trump’s deal is as carte blanche as it sounds – and is backed by Congress – the US is essentially tearing up the nuclear non-proliferation rulebook.
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Global norms and rules are often shaky. And as Mark Carney, the Canadian prime minister, pointed out at the annual World Economic Forum meeting in Davos earlier this year, they are more often enforced or respected when it suits the interests of the most powerful states.
Nuclear non-proliferation is one of the few elements of the world order where countries big and small have been consistently willing to play by the rules.
After all, the stakes could not be higher: the more countries that have nuclear weapons, the more risk of humanity lurching into a civilisation-ending catastrophe.
But if the rules are applied selectively – or broken without sanction – countries will quickly revert to the law of the jungle.
This appears to be the order of business Mr Trump is happy to lead us into. His assumption is that since the US is the king of the jungle, it will suit American interests just fine.
In the Middle East, the inevitable logic of nuclear arms proliferation will quickly reassert itself. If your neighbour has the power to threaten your destruction, then you need it too.
Mohammed bin Salman, the Saudi crown prince, said as much, back in 2018: “Without a doubt if Iran developed a nuclear bomb, we will follow suit as soon as possible.”
If the Saudis are going nuclear, then Iran – already highly motivated to acquire nuclear weapons by Israel’s unconfirmed arsenal – will be more resolute in pursuing the programme that Mr Trump is trying to destroy.
It isn’t the first time the US has chipped away at the nuclear non-proliferation regime. The Obama administration watered down the rules for India in the first half of the 2010s.
It was a rocky moment. Washington had to smooth over its New Delhi agreement with its angst-ridden allies, including Britain.
Mr Trump, though, won’t worry about what the UK or France think, nor leading non-proliferation voices such as Japan and Australia.
Like many of his actions, the deal as reported would be short-termist and self-interested. He’ll be seeing the dollar signs, not the dangers.
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The most serious consequences would play out many years after Mr Trump leaves office, as the global nuclear non-proliferation regime withers and the Gulf goes nuclear.
But even in the here and now, it would further undermine US claims to legitimate global leadership and complicate his own project to disarm Iran.
Just another day at the Oval Office.
