Trump's new tariffs on Brazil could tip the election for Lula over Bolsonaro

BRASÍLIA — New tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump on Brazilian products are posing another challenge for the Trump-aligned candidate in Latin America’s largest country months before the presidential election.

The 25 percent levy, which takes effect Wednesday, applies to products that represent 18 percent of Brazil’s exports to the United States, worth some $7.4 billion. The U.S. is Brazil’s second-largest trade partner, after China.

President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is blaming the tariffs on Flávio Bolsonaro, his principal opponent in the October election, and polling shows more than half of Brazilians agree.

Bolsonaro, the oldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro, is challenging Lula in part so he can get his father out of prison, a goal Trump has supported. Trump and the Bolsonaros, right-wing populists, enjoy close political and personal ties; Lula, a leftist, has tried to develop a productive relationship with the U.S. president.

Flávio Bolsonaro supported U.S. tariffs and sanctions last year to pressure the government to end the prosecution of the elder Bolsonaro for attempting a military coup in 2022. His brother Eduardo moved to the U.S. last year specifically to lobby the Trump administration to help their father.

But Flávio Bolsonaro asked the administration in recent weeks to delay any new levies.

It would be “the worst moment,” he told the U.S. trade representative this month, because they could end up “benefiting Lula.”

Lula enjoyed a rallying effect when Trump imposed tariffs last July, and another boost when Trump withdrew most of them after they met in November.

“The tariffs have become a political asset for Lula,” said Thomas Traumann, a political analyst based in Rio de Janeiro. “Trump is unpopular in Brazil, nearly half the country has an unfavorable view of the United States, and Brazilians are deeply sensitive to the idea of foreign interference. ...

“If Lula can convince voters that Flávio Bolsonaro bears responsibility for the White House’s actions, it could be enough to tip the election in his favor.”

The Trump administration last week announced new tariffs on Brazil in retaliation for what officials say are unfair trade practices.

“Extensive negotiations with Brazil over the past year have not resolved these issues,” U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement. “But we remain open to continuing negotiations with Brazil to bring about long-needed changes to the problems identified in this investigation.”

Administration officials accuse Brazil of unfair practices in its digital public payment system and of failing to do enough to combat corruption and deforestation. Brazilian officials say the allegations are baseless; they’ve cited official data showing that Amazon deforestation fell last year to its lowest level since 2014.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Lula had refused to negotiate “in good faith.” “Lula has put his own ego ahead of making a deal for the welfare of the Brazilian people,” he wrote on social media, “and these tariffs are the price for that.”

Lula called Rubio, born in Miami to Cuban immigrant parents, “a frustrated Latin American” who “doesn’t like Brazil or the region.”

Felipe Nunes, director of the polling firm Quaest, says the political impact of the tariffs will depend less on their economic effect than on who gets blamed for them.

Both sides are scrambling to shape the narrative. Bolsonaro says the new tariffs are the result of Lula’s inaction. But 51 percent of Brazilians agree with Lula that Bolsonaro is to blame, according to a Genial/Quaest poll, and nearly 6 in 10 said they didn’t believe Bolsonaro had the influence to convince Trump to reverse them.

“External events can reshape politics when voters identify a clear political culprit,” Nunes said. “Once responsibility is assigned, it tends to affect how the actors involved are evaluated. ...

“At this point, there’s a good chance the episode will end up benefiting Lula again.”

Brazil’s political parties begin nominating candidates this week. The campaign starts next month, when candidates and parties may run advertisements tied to the election. The first round of voting is set for Oct. 4.

If Flávio Bolsonaro is elected, he told The Washington Post in April, he’ll pardon his father. Jair Bolsonaro, who was defeated by Lula in 2022, is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting the violent overthrow of the democratic rule of law and related charges. Prosecutors said he led a plot that included plans to assassinate Lula and other officials.

Polling two months ago showed Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula in a statistical tie. But since then, allegations linking Bolsonaro to Brazil’s largest financial fraud, public family infighting and a backlash over his ties to Trump have helped Lula open a lead of as much as eight percentage points.