SerpApi.Org
On July 17, 2019, the United States kicked Turkey out of the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter program, five days after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan received the Russian-made S-400 air defense system it had purchased. President Donald Trump may admire Erdogan, but he had no choice. The 2017 Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act applied sanctions that Trump had no power to waive on those who conduct business with Russia, Iran, and North Korea.
Seven years on, Trump appears intent on resuming the F-35 sale to Turkey. He has called Turkey a "loyal" ally. “We don’t want to sanction friends,” he said. Erdogan, meanwhile, appears intent on offloading the S-400s to bypass CAATSA. The latest rumor suggests that Turkey will sell the S-400s to the United Arab Emirates. Bypassing CAATSA does not make selling the F-35 to Turkey wise. Turkey’s defense industry reverse-engineers American technology, and Erdogan has repeatedly embraced terrorist groups such as Hamas. Turkey’s recent deployment of F-16s to occupied Northern Cyprus shows Erdogan will not uphold end-use agreements. Turkey’s cheerleaders may say the country needs F-35s to counter Russia, but the reality is that Turkey is far more likely to use the stealth jets to attack Israel, Greece, Cyprus, Armenia, or eastern Libya.
Trump has been a deal-maker his entire life. He made hundreds of millions of dollars by understanding what he could charge when the buyer appeared desperate. And Erdogan’s single-minded desire for the top-shelf F-35 reflects Turkey’s desperation as other regional states maintain their qualitative military edge over Turkey.
The question then becomes why Trump, who also wants a Nobel Peace Prize, does not condition the sale on other concessions? For starters, there is Cyprus. July 20 marked the 52nd anniversary of Turkey’s invasion of the island. Turkey has since ethnically cleansed one-third of the island and transported tens of thousands of settlers into Northern Cyprus. The Turkish occupation becomes a U.S. national security concern for two reasons. First, the occupied zones’ casinos and universities are reputed money-laundering hubs for terrorist groups and Russian oligarchs, and second, the Turkish establishment of a state recognized by no one but itself sets the precedent that Russian President Vladimir Putin has since used while cleaving territory from Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine. If Turkey wants the F-35, Trump should demand that it first withdraw completely from Cyprus.
There is no reason why the U.S. should ever arm any country that embraces U.S.-designated terrorist groups. If Turkey wants the F-35, Trump should demand that Turkey not only designate Hamas and Hezbollah as terrorist groups but also arrest and extradite Hamas leaders on Turkish territory.
Trump has called the Turkish dictator a “tough cookie," a "hell of a leader," and explained, "strength is why Erdoğan runs a successful and good country.” Stability of dictatorships, though, is illusionary. Erdogan is aging, and he has suffered several health crises. Trump may be selling the F-35 to a country that could fall into civil war or state failure upon Erdogan’s death. Democracies with strong rule of law tend to handle transition better. Trump should use his leverage to demand the release of political prisoners like Kurdish leader Selahattin Demirtaş, Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, and philanthropist Osman Kevala.
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Many of Trump’s supporters prioritize religious freedom. While President Joe Biden’s team ignored the slaughter of Christians in Nigeria and Biafra and the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh, Trump has the chance to be different. He might demand the restoration of all Greek Orthodox property, including the Halki Seminary and the Hagia Sophia. Trump should demand not only that Erdogan recognize the Armenian and Pontic Greek genocides but also lay a wreath at the Armenian genocide memorial in Yerevan, Armenia.
Supporters of the F-35 deal point out it is not just about a jet. It is about cementing a relationship that can last decades. They are right. But while the relationship should last decades, Erdogan has far less time. If Erdogan wants the jet, Trump should demonstrate the art of the deal. He may just strengthen regional security in the process.
Michael Rubin is director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, a distinguished fellow at India’s Usanas Foundation, and a contributor to Beltway Confidential.
