Trump Gifts Saudi Arabia a Nuclear Deal and Turkey F-35 Jets, as a Sidelined Netanyahu Is Left to Watch

Against the backdrop of an anticipated agreement between Washington and Riyadh, Netanyahu still hopes to sway the U.S. into returning to a joint military campaign in Iran, but must understand Trump will no longer give Israel gifts the size of Obama's $38 billion 2016 security deal

July 22nd, 22PM July 22nd, 23PM

The latest Middle East developments are demonstrating Israel's waning influence, particularly regarding U.S. President Donald Trump's policies.

Washington has closed a deal with Saudi Arabia allowing it to develop a civilian nuclear program. There are no signs it will include any normalization between Riyadh and Jerusalem. At the same time, Trump is pushing for implementation of Israel's agreement with Lebanon, which will eventually require Israeli withdrawal from south Lebanon.

Iran is the main issue that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is still hoping to influence Trump's decisions on. It seems from the president's statements and hints that Trump is aiming for further escalation. Netanyahu would be happy to bring Israel into the fighting, though it's very unclear what the country would gain from that.

Most of the latest Gulf plot developments are about Pickaxe Mountain, south of the Natanz nuclear site. Trump threatened on Tuesday to strike the site, during a White House press conference with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun. His threat followed a Wall Street Journal report quoting Israeli officials that they believe the Iranians moved nuclear centrifuges into Pickaxe Mountain last fall, between the two rounds of war.

The site lies deep in the ground, but in contrast to other sites in Iran's nuclear program, it has yet to be attacked. That fact suggests that the United States and Israel have believed that they didn't have the capability to attack at such a depth. It is much deeper than the Fordo site, which the United States blew up in June of last year. Added to this problem is the issue of the 440 kilograms of 60-percent enriched uranium, which Iran still possesses.

The U.S. attacks on Iran have continued on the president's orders for 10 days, as a response to Iran firing on tankers sailing the southern lane of the Hormuz Strait, near the Omani coast. A move against Pickaxe Mountain would constitute an additional escalation.

Such a move could theoretically include Israel. According to another Wall Street Journal report, Trump still opposes Israel's reentry into the war because he wants sole control over how hot the war gets. Still, Israel's participation is a realistic possibility, and the Israeli military has accordingly raised its level of readiness over the last few days.

Despite the fact that Netanyahu's propaganda channels are busy pumping his supporters with adrenaline about the escalation, it's worth remembering that a single targeted operation isn't likely to solve the issue. In the long term, completely halting Iran's nuclear program (not to mention its missile program) will require more expansive steps. Those steps include regime change, or forcing additional major concessions through a widespread war. There's probably no magic solutions here, and the attempts over the last few months to find them have failed.

Meanwhile, Trump has hosted Aoun in Washington and reached a deal with the Saudis. The Lebanese government's first steps in its south, with U.S. encouragement, are positive. For now, Israel is withdrawing from a few villages near the Yellow Line in the Litani River region, and the Lebanese army is deploying forces to dismantle Hezbollah's remaining infrastructure.

It's a path full of obstacles. Iran and Hezbollah will probably continue to do whatever they can to prevent the agreement's implementation, which could pave the way for Israeli-Lebanese normalization.

But as the agreement's plan progresses, the Lebanese, backed by the United States, will increase their demands of Israel. The United States is already hinting that by its end, Israel will be required to fully withdraw from south Lebanon. Israel's (next) government will have to convince its northern residents that such a withdrawal is a calculated risk, made challenging by the fact that the declarations of victory after the previous round in Lebanon turned out to be premature.

The most dramatic news in the last few weeks is about Saudi Arabia. After years of talks, the Trump administration is due on Thursday to announce official approval of a comprehensive civilian nuclear program agreement with the kingdom. The agreement is supposed to enable Riyadh to enrich uranium for civilian purposes under U.S. supervision.

The Biden administration discussed such a move, essentially shelving it after October 7. One of the reasons Hamas' Gaza leadership decided to commit the massacre near the border when it did was fear of a U.S.-Saudi deal, which would have included normalization between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Joe Biden's people had worked in close coordination with Netanyahu, despite the differences between the two sides, in hopes of securing a significant foreign policy win for the president.

Now however, despite the fact that the Saudis seem to have no intention of normalizing relations with Israel (at least not with the Netanyahu regime), Trump has no problem giving them what they want, even if Israel gets nothing from it. While Trump's direction is based on his personality and priorities, it's also influenced by an emerging crisis in his relationship with Netanyahu, with whom Trump officials are blaming as the main culprit for the failure of the Iranian adventure.

The Saudi deal will be announced a few weeks after Trump promised new F-35 jets for Turkey, much to Netanyahu's dismay.

That's not all, though. Soon, the Trump administration is supposed to start debating the question of renewing security aid to Israel. The deal, signed in 2016 during the Obama administration, guaranteed $3.8 billion annually through 2028. It seems Trump has no intention of giving more gifts of this size.

The latest outrage

Developments in the Middle East are likely to have ramifications in Israeli politics, and that could in turn impact security decisions. A decisive majority of polls are showing Likud in decline as Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party rises. As the election grows closer and Netanyahu's circle grows more worried, his campaign's rhetoric is becoming more and more extreme. Because a security crisis may impact on the public's agenda, the potential for intentional military escalation with this political goal in mind can't be ruled out.

Over the past two days, a storm has erupted on social media over an AI video that Netanyahu published on social media. The clip shows Eisenkot running toward a young man wearing a t-shirt that reads "Israeli unity." However, Eisenkot runs past him and embraces United Arab List chair Mansour Abbas.

Critics of the clip asserted that the young man looks like Eisenkot's youngest son, Gal, who was killed in the Gaza war. They say the video's goal was to mock him against the backdrop of his bereavement. Likud officials denied this accusation but refused, as is their way, to apologize. Instead, the party uploaded a new version, replacing the young man with a young woman.

It's hard to believe that it was an honest mistake. It's more likely a warm-up for a campaign against Eisenkot, gradually normalizing attacks on the leading opposition candidate based specifically on his family's bereavement. All Likud needs to do is get the public used to the latest outrage.

This isn't a random, isolated incident. A few days ago, Netanyahu was interviewed on Avi Shushan's podcast, and when Shushan came to the Channel 14 studio to discuss his experiences, he had an amazing anecdote to share. Shushan said that Netanyahu told him in the interview, which is expected to be published on Thursday, that Shin Bet security service head David Zini should investigate the question of whether there was internal treason on October 7.

Officially, Netanyahu has distanced himself from the accusation of treason (and once even contradicted it publicly). But practically, his circle and Likud backbenchers are enthusiastically promoting the conspiracy. Thus, the prime minister can push an idea without associating himself with it – he doesn't officially spread the false theory, but uses intermediaries to make sure that it stays at the center of public discourse.