This small voting bloc could decide Maine's Senate race

A small bloc of young voters in the country’s oldest state could play a pivotal role in one of the most consequential Senate races this year.  

As Democrats scramble to replace Graham Platner as their nominee in Maine’s Senate race, new polling suggests voters under age 35 remain a decisive constituency in the race against Republican Sen. Susan Collins. 

Published July 21, a University of New Hampshire survey found Troy Jackson, the likely replacement for Platner, in a statistical dead heat with Collins. Jackson led among women and young voters, garnering 67% support among voters ages 18-34; the same amount Platner notched in a spring poll against Collins.  

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An analysis by a group at Tufts University earlier this month ranked Maine among the top states where young voters are likely to sway midterm election outcomes.  

Young people ages 18-29 make up a relatively low share of Maine’s population. The median age in the state is 44.8, with folks over 65 comprising 23% of the population, according to 2024 data from the Maine State Economist Office. 

But young people in Maine turn out to vote at rates unheard of across the country. In 2024, 60% of young people ages 18-29 voted in Maine, compared to 47% nationally, according to the 2025 State of Democracy in Maine report. During the 2022 midterms, Maine’s youth turnout was more than 10 percentage points higher than the national total.  

Maine's election laws, including same-day registration and no voter ID requirement, also make it easier for young voters and out-of-state college students to cast a ballot.  

Justin Chenette, 35, previously served alongside Jackson as the youngest state Senator in Maine history. He said it’s still "early to really see where the chips are falling" in the race. 

Though the presumptive nominee, Jackson can't officially secure a spot on the ticket until a special nominating convention set for July 25. Then, he'll have just over 100 days to build a campaign against the incumbent, who has served in the Senate for nearly three decades. 

Jackson’s ability to energize and mobilize young voters to head to the polls could prove critical for Democrats. The party sees Maine's Senate race as a must-win to flip control of the chamber.

"The (Jackson) campaign is going to have to engage all demographics, but young people can absolutely make or break this race," Chenette said.  

Tough act to follow 

Alison Beyea watched students at Colby College galvanize around the Platner campaign last semester in a way she hadn’t seen them react to a political candidate in years.  

"The Maine U.S. Senate race is not typically a huge topic of conversation at Colby, but it was all that people talked about this spring," said Beyea, executive director of the Goldfarb Center for Public Affairs at the university. "They saw something in the primary that spoke to them about what kind of leadership they wanted."

Platner's virtual campus town hall was at capacity. Hundreds of students turned out to listen to him, even ones who didn’t plan to vote for him in the primary, Beyea remembered. 

She believes Platner helped cut through their deep disillusionment with the political establishment and offered hope.  

“They would consistently talk about the message he gave about how the system wanted to divide them,” she said. “That really resonated for students.” 

Platner's departure from the race, and Jackson's rise as the presumptive nominee, have raised fresh questions about whether Democrats will continue to build on the momentum with young people.  

On paper, Jackson is remarkably similar to Platner. Both men come from working-class backgrounds: Platner an Oyster farmer and Jackson a logger. Both received support from Sen. Bernie Sanders’ grassroots political action group Our Revolution and focused their messages on affordability. 

But Jackson has spent decades in Maine politics and is likely to face scrutiny for past socially conservative viewpoints, including his previous anti-gay marriage and anti-abortion stances. It also remains to be seen whether he holds the same charismatic pull Planter had over young voters. 

"The policies play a huge part, but I think we have dismissed... the importance of feeling like a candidate makes us feel like we want them to lead," Beyea said. 

Chenette views Jackson's gruff persona as a potential asset. Young people, he said, are looking for authenticity. 

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 "That's why you're seeing such a movement toward voices like Troy Jackson and others who are not necessarily the most polished,"Chenette said. "They have not tested their responses by a D.C. consultant." 

Amid a shortened campaign, political analysts say Jackson will need to meet young voters where they are: online. Reaching youth through social media is about more than "cool editing and TikTok trends," said Jack Petocz, partnerships director at the advocacy group Gen-Z for Change. That will take off and energize young people to vote, he argued, if the policy platform resonates.

"There seems to be a resonance with young people and candidates who hear and see their concerns, specifically about the economy and about challenging systems that aren't working," said Leela Strong, Newhouse director of the Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts. 

"In Maine and anywhere else in the country, that seems to be the recipe for connecting with young voters this cycle." 

Karissa Waddick covers issues related to youth voters in the 2026 midterm elections. She can be reached at [email protected].

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: This small voting bloc could decide Maine's Senate race