SerpApi.Org
The midterm elections have traditionally been a bloodbath for the party in power. Post-Tea Party, however, this has not necessarily been the case. In 2018, Democrats rode a “blue wave” in the House elections, flipping 40 seats and taking control of the lower chamber, while Republicans managed to net two Senate seats. In 2022, Democrats lost the House, albeit narrowly, losing only nine seats, but picked up a Senate seat to expand their majority.
This time around, President Donald Trump’s approval rating is low enough to put the fear of the Lord into even the most optimistic of Republican consultants. The RealClearPolitics polling average has the president around 41% approval and -14.5% overall. Recent polls from the Washington Post and CNBC have Trump at -24 and -19, respectively.
Interestingly, Democrats are only ahead by around 4 points in a generic congressional vote. CNN’s Harry Enten pointed out that while Democrats still hold a slight advantage, their current lead pales in comparison to the 10-point advantage the party had heading into the 2018 midterm elections. Democrats had a 12-point lead going into the 2006 blue-wave election. “You are right on the edge with this four-point lead … right on the edge of even getting that majority,” Enten said.
Ironically, the fact that Congress has continually ceded power to the executive may be shielding Republican congressional hopefuls from the wrath of the electorate. While the head of the party is quite unpopular, it would be a tough sell for Democrats to convince voters that Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), for instance, is to blame for current economic woes or foreign policy.
Trump’s least popular issues with voters are his handling of the Iran war and tariff policy. The president is -37 on Iran, and 60% of voters disagree with his “Liberation Day” tariff regime. Whether or not you approve of Trump’s decision to attack Iran, it was his decision alone.
Congress was largely sidelined, and contrary to internet conspiracy theories, it was not Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or a cabal of paid “influencers” who forced the president’s hand. Trump wanted to hit Iran, and he owns what happens next. Many congressional Republicans disagreed with Trump’s unilateral, near-global tariff regime and resulting trade war (as did six of nine Supreme Court justices). It is far easier for candidates to distance themselves from a policy they never voted for, and in many cases publicly opposed.
Since Congress has effectively made itself powerless on matters of war and trade, candidates may be able to avoid answering tough questions on the president’s most deeply unpopular positions and stick to their preferred script: calling out radicalism in Democratic Party ranks. Democratic policy proposals are no more popular than Trump’s. Republicans can point to the success of Nazi-turned-Communist and alleged rapist Graham Platner in the Maine Democratic Senate primary and the support for the Islamist Abdul el Sayed in Michigan.
Democrats got their wish with socialist and terrorist-supporter Zohran Mamdani winning the New York City mayoral race, and the result was rent hitting an all-time high in Brooklyn and Manhattan. As the Democratic Socialists of America complete their takeover of the Democratic Party, its leaders are openly calling to abolish the Senate (which, of course, is constitutionally impossible).
'PROJECT 2029' SHOWS DEMOCRATS HAVE STILL LEARNED NOTHING
A July Echelon poll found that Americans view free markets (+41%) and capitalism (+20%) quite favorably, while communism (-79%) was the most unpopular idea polled. Republican candidates would be wise to stay disciplined and focus on the increasingly large socialist cohort on the Left. When pressed on tariffs and inflation, Republicans can take the off-ramp provided to them by the Supreme Court and pivot to their own policy proposals.
A lot can happen between now and November, but the GOP’s position is surprisingly strong considering Trump’s current numbers.
Brady Leonard (@bradyleonard) is a writer, musician, and host of The No Gimmicks Podcast.
