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We are still a month away from the start of the new Premier League season but it already looks like it will be the toughest campaign yet for Eddie Howe, the Newcastle United manager.
Here, Telegraph Sport breaks down the key problems he faces...
Lingering negativity
It has been a difficult and, at times, acrimonious 12 months for Howe, who must have wondered whether the job was still worth the hassle given the criticism and online vitriol he received at times last season.
Few would have blamed him if he had quit, but Howe has always been fully committed and always knew there would be a period like this to come through.
He has been in the job almost five years and last season was the first time he had been vilified by a section of the fanbase. It left its mark. The boos that followed defeats at St James’ Park hurt and he worried the unity that had powered the team’s success had fractured irreparably.
The apparent collective shrug that greeted another run to the Carabao Cup semi-final, while guiding the team into the knockout rounds of the Champions League for the first time was a source of bewilderment and frustration.
Howe has not complained or moaned. Although he wobbled towards the end of last season and there were some calling for him to be sacked, he was supported and encouraged by those above him. That loyalty mattered.
The problem is, negativity lingers in the fanbase. Even a picture of Howe at pre-season training, posted on social media by the club, led to abusive comments questioning his ability and character. Some of it was toxic. It was rightly called out by other supporters.
There are some who are itching to attack Howe as soon as the season begins. If they get off to a bad start – their opening run of games, starting at home to Liverpool, away to Tottenham Hotspur, home to Bournemouth and away to Leeds United are littered with danger – he will quickly be in the line of fire. Patience has been eroded, the credit in the bank spent and understanding in short supply.
The supporters inside the stadium remained loyal to Howe last season, singing his name throughout their end-of-season collapse – but there were also murmurs of discontent too.
Howe has always privately maintained he will not stay where he is not wanted. The club’s hierarchy remain convinced he is the right man to lead a new-look side built around younger players he will improve over the next two-to-three years.
But it would seem very unlikely he survives another poor league campaign. There is already too much anger and opposition towards him among fans who believe he is solely to blame for both poor recruitment last summer and the disappointing league season that followed.
Loss of key players
Newcastle have had a reset this summer and needed one. They had overspent both in terms of wages and transfer fees and were in breach of Uefa’s financial rules. The team built after the Saudi Arabian-backed takeover had been a wonderful one but too many of their best players wanted to leave and the sale of Alexander Isak, as Telegraph Sport argued at the time, fired the starting pistol on an exodus of top talent.
Isak was Newcastle’s best player and top goalscorer and they have not replaced him adequately. Anthony Gordon signed for Barcelona in May having scored 17 goals in all competitions last season. Sandro Tonali had a poor campaign compared to the previous season but at his best he is one of the top defensive midfielders in the Premier League. He wanted to earn more money and live in London so left for Tottenham Hotspur.
Their departures weaken Newcastle and there is no point pretending otherwise, yet Howe will still be expected to match his previous achievements.
There are exceptions to the rule, but long term, you cannot hope to progress on the pitch if you sell your best players every summer. At best you can still compete for a top-six finish, but you will not close the gap on the elite. You cannot consistently challenge for the big prizes, which is what Newcastle had told their supporters they want to do by 2030.
People point to clubs like Brighton, Brentford and Bournemouth and say they do it every year – but they also, generally, finish mid-table and do not win domestic cups.
All three had excellent seasons last time around and are playing in Europe this term, but so were Crystal Palace and Nottingham Forest last year before finishing in the bottom half of the table.
These expectation levels are both a weight on Howe’s shoulders and a weapon for his critics to attack him with. Living up to them is an unenviable – and possibly thankless – task. He deserves to be cut some slack next season but will he?
A change of transfer strategy
Newcastle know they have to trade players. The financial rules demand it and it is something Ross Wilson, the club’s sporting director, has attempted to normalise since he arrived last year. Newcastle have been very good at it so far and credit must be given to both he and David Hopkinson, the Newcastle chief executive, for that. The £75m fee for Gordon and especially the £100m they received for Tonali look like fantastic deals.
Getting players in to replace them has been harder. Newcastle were gazumped by Liverpool in their attempt to sign Spain international Victor Muñoz back in June and were also beaten by Aston Villa in the race to sign Johan Manzambi earlier this month. Both were key targets.
Newcastle have also had some successes, too. Goalkeeper Ewen Jaouen will start as back-up but has huge potential. Bazoumana Touré is another very exciting 20-year-old, who was signed to replace Gordon. Sean Steur, 18, was regarded as one of Ajax’s best prospects for a generation and Newcastle signed him before he began to shine in their first team.
Others of this profile will arrive this summer. There are deals, closely guarded secrets given what happened with Muñoz and Manzambi after they leaked publicly, that are getting close to completion. Newcastle need to sign a midfielder, possibly two full-backs and a goalkeeper before the transfer window closes. They could also add another right-sided forward if Jacob Murphy departs.
But what is clear is the new arrivals will all be young and raw. They are being signed for their potential rather than what they can offer in the short term. They cannot be expected to immediately replicate what Gordon and Tonali gave the team. They will need time and patience to adapt and develop.
It will be a younger, less experienced side next season and Howe will need to blend it all together. Just because time and patience are needed does not mean a manager will be afforded it.
The Bruno saga
It is important to stress Newcastle do not want to sell Bruno Guimarães. They do not need to sell him from a financial perspective and, as far as the board are concerned, have no intention of doing so.
But as we saw with Isak, saying a player is not for sale is not the same thing as him not being sold. There is a price that Newcastle will at least consider. Arsenal are nowhere near matching it, judging by what intermediaries have relayed to Newcastle over the last few weeks, but it remains a concern.
Arsenal know Guimarães would like to join them. The player has been honest about that with Newcastle too. But they also know they need him to demand to leave for a transfer to happen. Nothing has progressed and Guimarães is expected to start pre-season training next week.
Regardless, it is a huge headache for Howe. Guimarães is his most important player and his leader in the dressing room. If he goes, there are some who will argue the manager may as well give up. Next season will already be a write-off.
Even if he stays – which remains far more likely than him leaving, according to senior sources at the club – Newcastle have an unhappy player whose head has been turned.
We do not know how Guimarães is going to respond. From the very start of this saga, it always looked like the only way he would get his move to Arsenal was if Guimarães followed the same blueprint as Isak: refuse to travel abroad for a training camp and then refuse to play or train until a fee is agreed.
The Brazil midfielder was a vehement critic of Isak’s behaviour last summer and has intimated he has too much respect for Howe and Newcastle to go down that path. But if he is really desperate to get a move then nothing can be ruled out.
Before a ball has been kicked next season, the sale of Guimarães would plunge Newcastle into turmoil and would probably turn a difficult job for Howe into an impossible one.
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