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EXCLUSIVE: As the race for control of Congress heats up, prediction markets are emerging as an increasingly influential complement to traditional polling, offering real-time election forecasts that shift as news breaks and campaigns evolve.
The launch reflects a broader shift in how elections are being tracked. Unlike traditional polls that capture voter sentiment at a single moment, prediction markets update continuously as traders react to debates, fundraising, endorsements and breaking news, giving campaigns and political observers a real-time read on how races are evolving.
Kalshi launched its new Midterms Hub on Tuesday, bringing together live market odds, polling averages, fundraising data, historical election results and political news into a single dashboard tracking House, Senate and gubernatorial races. Kalshi said it plans to expand the platform beyond the 2026 midterm elections, with the goal of making it a permanent destination for tracking U.S. political races.
"Prediction markets don't care about spin or partisanship," Tarek Mansour, Kalshi's co-founder and CEO, said ahead of the launch. "They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric."
The company argues that it gives users a more dynamic view of the campaign than traditional polling alone.
"You're able to see things happen in real time," a Kalshi spokesperson told Fox News Digital, arguing prediction markets can capture shifts in momentum that periodic polling may miss.
Kalshi says the platform has evolved beyond a trading venue, with roughly 75% of visitors using it to monitor election forecasts rather than place trades. A spokesperson said that trend suggests many users view the markets as an informational resource, even if they never place a wager.
As election markets have grown in popularity, they've also sparked debate over whether traders with nonpublic political information could gain an advantage. Kalshi says it is federally regulated in the United States, where insider trading and market manipulation are illegal, and that it monitors its markets for suspicious activity.
The hub allows users to track races by competitiveness, projected party flips and trading volume while viewing polling averages, Federal Election Commission fundraising reports and historical voting results. Users can also see how election odds have changed over time following debates, fundraising reports and other major campaign developments.
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Beyond voters and political observers, Kalshi says campaigns can use the hub to gauge whether debates, endorsements, fundraising hauls or breaking news are shifting expectations in real time instead of waiting days for new polling.
Kalshi says candidates favored by its markets have won about 90% of races since 2024, even three months before Election Day.
Original article source: The battle for Congress gets a Wall Street-style scoreboard powered by real-money bets
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