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A low-pressure system off Florida's Gulf Coast is becoming more organized, and forecasters say it is increasingly likely to become the season's next tropical depression or named storm.
Before it is officially named, the disturbance may still deliver several days of heavy rain, gusty conditions, and flooding worries to parts of the Gulf Coast, according to the Orlando Sentinel.
What's happening?
The National Hurricane Center said in its 8 a.m. tropical outlook on Sunday, July 19, that a low-pressure area near Florida was showing clearer signs of development, with showers and thunderstorms building around it.
The center now estimates an 80% chance of formation within 48 hours and an 80% chance over the next seven days.
Forecasters expect the system to move slowly north or northwest, and tropical storm watches or warnings could be posted for parts of the northern Gulf Coast in the coming days.
Residents along the northern Gulf Coast in Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana were advised by the National Hurricane Center to monitor the developing weather pattern.
The Air Force Reserve also planned a reconnaissance flight for later on Sunday to collect information on the system.
If the disturbance earns a name, it would become the second named storm of the 2026 hurricane season, following Tropical Storm Arthur.
After Arthur, the next names on the list are Bertha and Cristobal, even though the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continues to forecast a below-normal season with eight to 14 named storms and three to six hurricanes.
Why does it matter?
The biggest threat may not be wind speed, but water.
The National Weather Service office in Tampa said West Central Florida and Southwest Florida could get multiple rounds of heavy rain and gusty weather from Sunday into this week, increasing the chances of flooded streets and hazardous travel.
Flooded roads can cut off access to work, schools, and emergency care, while soaked homes can trigger mold and costly repairs.
Repeated storm damage due to extreme weather patterns can also strain household budgets, local businesses, and already stressed insurance systems.
Standing water can conceal road hazards, damage cars, disrupt power, and increase the risk of injury during commutes or evacuations.
Low-lying neighborhoods are often hit first and hardest.
A single slow-moving storm can still bring severe flooding, expensive cleanup, and days of disruption for Gulf Coast communities.
What's being done?
The National Hurricane Center first began following the disturbance on Wednesday, July 15, and the planned Air Force Reserve flight was expected to provide a closer look at its strength and structure.
Local weather offices began flagging the most likely impacts in advance, especially the potential for heavy downpours, strong gusts, and localized flooding.
Should advisories be needed, tropical storm watches or warnings issued later in the week would offer Gulf Coast residents more specific direction.
"Continued gradual development is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Monday as the system moves slowly northward or northwestward," the National Hurricane Center said.
"A few strong storms will be possible with strong gusty winds and heavy rain. Localized flooding of streets and low-lying areas may occur," the agency further warned.
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