SanDisk sinks 24% in 5 days -- this $2,500 projection suggests it's not time to panic

Sandisk's (NASDAQ: SNDK) stock price has had a sensational run over the last 12 months, climbing over 3,100%. For anyone who invested recently, however, the period from July 13 to July 17 was jarring.

Several issues pushed the Sandisk stock price lower. Broadly, geopolitical uncertainty seemingly drove a rotation out of tech stocks. But specifically on July 17, a new artificial intelligence (AI) model out of China rattled U.S. chip stocks hard. From July 13 to July 17, Sandisk shares dropped 24.5%.

That said, it's not time to press the panic button. Sandisk is turning unprecedented demand for its memory and storage solutions into massive revenue growth, it's locking in long-term deals, and a $2,500-per-share price target projection suggests the stock still has plenty of room to run higher from today's prices.

Sales keep flooding in

AI models demanding more memory and storage solutions to run efficiently have been a boon for Sandisk. In its fiscal third-quarter earnings for 2026, it reported revenue climbed 251% to $5.9 billion. That's quite an impressive feat, considering its 2025 full-year revenue was $7.3 billion.

It also flexed its pricing power in the third quarter, with generally accepted accounting principles gross (GAAP) margin improving from 22.5% to 78.4%. It also reported GAAP net income of $3.6 billion, another noteworthy boost from the $1.9 billion net loss it reported in Q3 2025.

Sandisk's fourth-quarter 2026 earnings are also expected to be strong; revenue is expected to fall in a range of $7.75 billion to $8.25 billion.

In addition, it's important to remember that Sandisk is a cyclical company; it's setting up long-term contracts. In its third quarter, it signed three deals with a minimum contractual revenue of $42 billion. It also has five other deals that the management team should share more details on in the fourth quarter.

What price targets suggest

Of the 29 analysts tracked by CNN, the median price target for Sandisk over the next 12 months is $2,500. The highest price target tracked from those analysts is $3,250, while the lowest is $1,000.

We'll focus on the median to avoid outliers. From the closing price of $1,354.82 on July 17, if Sandisk were to reach that $2,500 price target over the next year, it would be a gain of 84.5%.

Looking at it another way, if Sandisk reaches $2,500, here's what a $5,000, $10,000, and $15,000 investment would roughly look like if an investor bought shares at the July 17 closing price of $1,354.82.

Calculations by author 

That median $2,500 price target, however, shouldn't be the sole consideration for whether to buy shares. It also shouldn't be taken as a guarantee. Rather, it helps gauge the risk-to-reward setup of owning Sandisk.

While there may be more price swings ahead, there's nothing that indicates that Sandisk should be abandoned as a long-term investment consideration. As supply seems unlikely to meet demand any time soon, with Sandisk continuing to hold pricing power, it should remain a beneficiary of AI's insatiable need for memory and storage solutions.

Jack Delaney has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.