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Taking a Breather. The stock market barely budged on Wednesday, but the real action was after the close.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell just six points. The S&P 500 was down 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 0.6%.
Mizuho’s Daniel O’Regan wrote that trading volume was lighter ahead of Alphabet’s earnings. More on that below.
“From a flow perspective, we’re seeing a pretty balanced market,” O’Regan wrote. “Buys and sells are running roughly even, urgency levels remain fairly low, and there isn’t much evidence of panic in either direction.”
The tepid movement in stocks signals Wall Street continues to shrug off rising oil prices. Brent crude jumped 3.4% to $94.07 on Wednesday. The international benchmark is up 12% in the past four sessions.
The bond market, on the other hand, is starting to worry about an imminent interest rate hike. The yield on the 2-year Treasury note hit 4.3% today, its highest level since Feb. 13, 2025.
Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, thinks a hike is on the menu for Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh. Dutta likens the situation to September 2024, when it was a safe call to predict a quarter-point cut, and bolder move to bet on a half-point cut. The central bank ultimately opted for a half-point cut.
“The gap is not quite as wide now, but today, the safe call is a hold, and the bold call is hike 25bp,” Dutta writes. “You must pick your spots against the consensus, and I feel like this might be one of those times.”
Dutta believes hiking early would provide Warsh with more flexibility going forward. “Maybe Warsh is really a dove, not this hawk I have seen my entire professional career,” Dutta writes. “Fine. If he is smart as everyone says he is, it might make sense for him to play the role of a tactical hawk.”
Odds of an interest-rate hike next week were up to 33.7%, compared to 25.7% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Let the countdown to next Wednesday’s press conference begin.
The Hot Stock: Super Micro Computer +19.8%The Biggest Loser: GE Vernova -8.7%
Best Sector: Utilities +2.3%Worst Sector: Communication Services -1.3%
Starting Gun
Magnificent Seven earnings season is officially underway. Chip stocks are the winners so far. Go figure.
Google’s parent Alphabet reported what my colleague Angela Palumbo described as “blowout earnings,” but the stock was down 4% in after-hours trading. Investors are still worried about the firm’s massive capital expenditures. Angela writes:
Shares were pretty much flat until that comment from management.
Tesla, the other Mag 7 firm to report results, fell 3% in after-hours trading on Wednesday. The electric-vehicle maker missed earnings expectations, though my colleague Al Root saw some positives in the report. Al writes:
Though both headliners were down on results, the iShares Semiconductor ETF was up 0.7% in after-hours trading. Until firms like Alphabet start cutting back on AI spending, the chip stock frenzy can keep rolling along.
The Calendar
Ameriprise Financial, Blackstone, Comcast, Deckers Outdoor, Digital Realty Trust, Dover, Dow, Freeport-McMoRan, Honeywell International, Intel, PG&E, RTX, Roper Technologies, HCA Healthcare, Huntington Bancshares, Lockheed Martin, Nasdaq, Newmont, Norfolk Southern, Quest Diagnostics, Thermo Fisher Scientific, T-Mobile US, Tractor Supply, Union Pacific, United Rentals, VeriSign, and West Pharmaceutical Services report earnings tomorrow.
The Labor Department will release initial jobless claims for the week ending July 18. Consensus calls for 215,000 to file for unemployment benefits.
S&P Global releases both its preliminary Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ Indexes for July. Economists forecast a 54.1 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and a 51.2 for the Services PMI.
—Teresa Rivas
What We’re Reading Today
CrowdStrike Just Gave Cerebras a Big Vote of ConfidenceA Longtime Bond Bull Gives Up on His Trademark TradeTrump’s New Brazil Tariffs Spare the Grocery Aisles—for NowIs Reddit Playing a Dangerous Game With Google?Dell, HP Enterprise Stocks Jump. How Super Micro Is Giving Them a Boost.
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