SerpApi.Org
MLB's trade deadline is rapidly approaching and wild card contenders in both the American and National Leagues have some big choices to make. One of the most interesting areas to buy from is starting pitching, where there are a lot of good options available that span the gauntlet of potential pennant-winning aces to rotation fillers.
The cost for these types of pitchers will vary significantly as well, with pitchers under team control for multiple years costing more to acquire than a rental. The laws of supply and demand also factor in as well, as the fact that only six teams (the Giants, Mets, Rockies, Angels, Royals and Reds) are clear sellers at this point has created a seller's market.
Which starters should cost the most to acquire in a deal? Let's look at 11 candidates and break down what it could take to pry them loose from their current teams.
11. Michael Wacha (RHP), Kansas City Royals
The last-ranked name here to watch is Wacha, who is the most intriguing pitcher available from the Royals. Kansas City still wants to try and win in Bobby Witt's prime, meaning they will want to get good value for Wacha if they move him.
Wacha, who has pitched to a 3.66 ERA this season, has two more years of club control and is pitching well enough to merit an organization's Top 5 prospect as the headliner in a package. The fact that Wacha is 35 could depress that return a bit, making it a coin flip as to whether or not Kansas City deems it worth selling high on him prior to the deadline.
10. Foster Griffin (LHP), Washington Nationals
Washington is in a swing position and has a bunch of mid-rotation-type pitchers in their rotation, allowing them to shop one to add more chips to their farm system. The arm getting the most traction is Griffin, who is having a career year at age 30 and is 11-2 with a 2.68 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in 117.1 innings pitched.
Finding an appropriate value on Griffin, who is a free agent after the year at age 30, is tricky since the season is a small sample size of his refinements after spending two years pitching in Japan. The Nationals are weighing whether to offer Griffin a contract extension, but if they do shop him; his performance this season would warrant an organizational Top 5 prospect in a deal.
9. Casey Mize (RHP), Detroit Tigers
The Skubal sweepstakes will dominate the attention in Detroit, but the Tigers have another intriguing trade candidate in their rotation in Mize. The former top pick from 2018 has had a post-hype breakout-type season, working to a 2.79 ERA in 15 starts, and makes just over $2 million for the remainder of the season.
Injuries have been an issue for Mize, who left his last start with groin tightness and a wrist problem, which could depress his return a bit. The Tigers are unlikely to use a qualifying offer on Mize, so getting a Top 5 organizational prospect could be enough to pry him out of Detroit.
8. Freddy Peralta (RHP), New York Mets
One of the most fascinating deadline dilemmas involves what the Mets will do with Peralta, who they gave up two Top 100 prospects to acquire in the offseason. Peralta has been a massive flop with the Mets, going 5-9 with a 5.01 ERA in 21 starts, to the point that New York may not even get a Top 100 type prospect back in a deadline move.
Teams will likely try to lowball the Mets with Peralta, who is one year removed from a 17-win season in Milwaukee. The Mets could try and boost their return for Peralta by pairing him with a controllable piece like Luke Weaver to get that Top 100 prospect or young big leaguer back, with the possibility of holding him to extend a qualifying offer at the end of the season increasing by the day.
7. Kevin Gausman (RHP), Toronto Blue Jays
This feels like a lost year for Toronto, which has seen injuries wreck their chances of defending the pennant, and they appear close to a pivot to selling. The top piece they have in the pitching department is Gausman, who has had a performance dip this season (4-9 with a 4.51 ERA in 21 starts) and is in the final year of his contract.
The logic here would be that Gausman, who has a track record of one of the best pitchers in the league over the past few years, would be revitalized in a pennant race like Justin Verlander was for the 2017 Astros. Toronto could likely ask for a similar three-prospect package as the one Houston sent Detroit for Verlander, which didn't include a Top 100 piece in that deal.
6. Jose Soriano (RHP), Los Angeles Angels
Jose Soriano has been one of the top dogs in the Angels' rotation. Soriano started the season like gangbusters but has come back to earth since, although his pitch mix is very enticing to analytically driven teams who can work with him for three playoff runs.
The market should be wide for Soriano, who can help not only this year's contenders but also teams looking to win next season, such as the Astros or Mets. The swoon Soriano has had should mean the top piece in a deal for him is a Top 100 prospect, although it would be surprising to see the traditionally risk-averse Angels move on from both of their top starters in the same season.
5. Reid Detmers (LHP), Los Angeles Angels
Logic doesn't seem to exist with the Angels, who have constantly misidentified their status as a potential contender for years. Arte Moreno fired GM Perry Minasian earlier this season and has former St. Louis Cardinals' GM John Mozeliak leading his front office in the interim, which could lead to a fresh perspective on selling high on pitchers to restock their farm system.
The top Angel to watch is Detmers, who appears to be finally capitalizing on his potential and has two years of club control beyond 2026. Detmers should command a strong haul if the Angels are actually serious about moving him headlined by a Top 50-ish prospect and multiple other young pieces.
4. Robbie Ray (LHP), San Francisco Giants
The top lefty in the non-Skubal division is Ray, who has looked sharp this season on a disappointing Giants' team. Ray is 8-6 with a 3.33 ERA in 110.2 innings but is a must-move for a Giants' team stuck with a ton of long-term deals and a need to get younger.
The fact that Ray is a rental could hurt how much the Giants could get back, but they could offset that by paying down some of his salary in an attempt to boost their prospect return. A package of prospects with at least one Top 100 piece could probably get Ray out of San Francisco and the price could go higher if Skubal stays put.
3. Clay Holmes (RHP), New York Mets
This is one of the more intriguing plays on the board for starters. Holmes was pitching at a fantastic level with the Mets before a freak leg injury and is close to a return, meaning he could be available for the stretch run and start postseason games for a new team.
There is risk here since Holmes can opt out of the last year of his deal and get to free agency, where he would likely beat the one year and $12 million left on his current contract. Holmes is open to extending with the Mets so he may not reach the market but the lack of quality options on the board means New York would likely want at least a Top 100 prospect back in return for him.
2. Joe Ryan (RHP), Minnesota Twins
Minnesota is in the mushy middle of the mediocre AL Wild Card picture, which means they have to make a call soon on what to do with their ace. Unlike Skubal, Ryan is under contract for next season as well, which means the Twins can ask for top prospect capital to give away their top starter for two playoff runs.
It's unclear if Minnesota is willing to anger their fan base even further by selling on Ryan one year after a massive deadline fire sale when they were buried in the standings. The looming lockout could also make teams hesitant to give the Twins a lot for Ryan since there's a chance the 2027 season is shortened by a lengthy work stoppage.
1. Tarik Skubal (LHP), Detroit Tigers
The Tigers haven't picked a lane yet, but if Skubal is made available, he could be the most impactful ace dealt at a deadline since the Brewers added C.C. Sabathia in 2008. Skubal is almost certainly going to be a pure rental play with agent Scott Boras hoping to help Skubal become the highest-paid pitcher of all time, so Detroit would ask for a lot back to give up their ace.
The latest speculation has seen Detroit looking for controllable big league starting pitching as part of a package. That pitching would be a headliner in a deal which would also include multiple other top prospects to win a bidding war among the likes of the Dodgers, Rays, Phillies, Braves, Brewers and Yankees.
More MLB news and analysis
- MLB Rumors: Padres asking price for Mason Miller and potential Mets stars on the move
- Pirates can make these 5 trade deadline moves without raising payroll
- The MLB trade deadline predictions insiders are afraid to make
- MLB Insider: Why the Tigers may not sell, the Rangers move to watch and Cam Smith decisions
- MLB playoff picture, bracket and predictions after 100 games
This article was originally published on fansided.com as Ranking the best starting pitchers available at the MLB trade deadline with asking price in mind.
