SerpApi.Org
The popular prediction market Kalshi has unveiled a midterm elections hub, claiming that trading on its exchange will provide “an always-on, real-time picture” of the fight for control of Congress in November.
"Prediction markets don't care about spin or partisanship. They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric," Tarek Mansour, co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, said in a statement. "That kind of clarity is rare right now and that's what people are getting with the Midterms Hub."
The hub includes markets regarding the overall control of Congress, individual high-profile races and more obscure fights such as local mayoral elections and ballot initiatives.
Kalshi argues the information gained from its site is superior to traditional political polling, writing in an announcement about the hub that “a poll is a static snapshot, while a market is a living forecast of the future.”
Kalshi competitor Polymarket has a similar elections hub.
Traders on both exchanges have spent nearly $200 million betting on the 2026 elections so far, according to a recent NBC News analysis.
Their predictions have at times diverged from mainstream poll-tracking.
Race to the WH, one popular poll aggregator, has Democrats likelier to win the Senate majority, while Polymarket bettors largely think the GOP has a better chance.
Despite considerable enthusiasm around political prediction markets, their mainstream adoption has also raised corruption concerns.
One of President Donald Trump’s teleprompter operators was put on unpaid administrative leave after being accused of winning more than $100,000 from betting on the content of the president’s speeches.
Gabriel Perez is currently complying with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed Thursday.
Leavitt added that the president found the situation “deeply unfortunate and frankly a disgrace.”
In March, the White House reportedly warned staffers against using nonpublic information to make political bets, after a trio of Polymarket accounts made more than $600,000 accurately predicting the timing of a ceasefire in the Iran war.
Earlier, in 2024, U.S. Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida allegedly tipped off a MAGA influencer, Rogan O’Handley, that Donald Trump would choose JD Vance as his running mate, teeing up a winning bet on Polymarket, The Wall Street Journal reported.
The alleged tip and trade reportedly inspired an investigation from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Luna and O’Handley have strongly denied any wrongdoing, and Luna’s office previously told The Independent she has “filed a complaint with the CTFC which has now opened a criminal investigation” based on an individual making false and defamatory claims about her.
The president’s son Donald Trump Jr. advises both Polymarket and Kalshi. His venture capital firm is also an investor in Polymarket.
Both Kalshi and Polymarket say they monitor and flag illegal activity on their platforms.
States across the country have sued both exchanges, arguing they are illegally operating without gambling licenses.
The companies argue they are not conducting gambling but rather engaged in legal, federally regulated contract and prediction markets.
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