Predicting SpaceX's valuation at the end of 2026

When it comes to analyst price targets for Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), you're going to find a wide range. At the high end of the spectrum is Raymond James, which placed a whopping $800 target on the stock. Morningstar, meanwhile, has said the fair value for the stock is closer to $62.

In my opinion, the stock is much more likely to trade closer to Morningstar's fair valuation by year-end. This is largely based on the early valuation Elon Musk's other company, Tesla, traded at in the early years after its IPO.

Selling pressure likely to mount

After a hot start, SpaceX's stock has been in free fall, trading below its $135 IPO price. This is before any of the numerous lock-up expirations set to hit later this year have even started. With a deluge of shares expected to exponentially increase the amount of SpaceX stock available on the open market, this is a headwind the stock will have to contend with for most of the rest of 2026 and into 2027.

Now, strong results and a reasonable valuation could certainly overcome a flood of new shares hitting the market, but SpaceX's valuation is still in the stars. Even after its pullback, the stock still has a market cap of around $1.7 trillion for a company that generated less than $19 billion in revenue in 2025.

And while analysts expect rapid revenue growth this year (Morgan Stanley, for example, projects it will hit $45 billion), that's still an extreme valuation for a company set to continue losing money and burning cash. In fact, Morgan Stanley, which is bullish on the stock, doesn't think it will turn free cash flow positive until 2035. That means the company is going to have to raise a lot of cash, through equity or debt offerings, to fund what is a high-capital-expenditure (capex) business.

A lot of SpaceX's valuation is based on future promises and predictions from founder and CEO Elon Musk, and his faithful following should help cushion the stock's downside, despite his spotty record with on-time predictions. However, that is largely why I think the stock will go into the $60s, not below that level.

A 10 times price-to-sales (P/S) multiple on $45 billion in revenue gets you to a market cap of $450 billion, which is about a $34 to $35 stock price. However, a high capex business also probably shouldn't be trading at a multiple of sales to begin with, so I don't think that is the best way to value the stock anyway. Nonetheless, a P/S of between 15 times and 20 times, which is where Tesla traded at in its early years, gives you between a $50 to $70 stock price, which is where I think SpaceX can trade at year-end.

Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Tesla. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.