SerpApi.Org
Maine Sen. Susan Collins is trailing likely Democratic challenger Troy Jackson in a new poll, signaling potential trouble for the five-term Republican as she seeks a sixth term in a state that voted against Donald Trump in 2024.
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll conducted July 15-20 among 1,236 Maine residents found that 49 percent of likely voters would back Jackson in a general election, compared with 46 percent for Collins. Five percent were undecided or preferred another candidate. Released July 21, the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.8 percentage points.
Jackson also led among independents, who favored him 46 percent to 42 percent over Collins.
Jackson’s path to the nomination
Jackson has not formally secured the Democratic nomination, which will be decided at the state party convention on July 25 in Bangor. However, he is widely expected to prevail after delegates selected at county caucuses overwhelmingly backed him, according to The New York Times. His top rivals dropped out after the caucuses.
A former logger and longtime state lawmaker, Jackson served as president of the Maine Senate from December 2018 to December 2024. He entered the race after Graham Platner, who won the Democratic primary on June 9, withdrew on July 10 following a rape allegation by an ex-girlfriend, which he has denied.
Jackson previously ran for governor after launching his campaign in March 2025 and formally announcing it in May. His bid was backed by Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and the Maine chapter of the Democratic Socialists of America.
Favorability numbers
Jackson posted a net-positive favorability rating in the poll, with 37 percent viewing him favorably and 32 percent unfavorably. Collins’ ratings were 35 percent favorable and 53 percent unfavorable. Among independents, Jackson’s net favorability stood at minus-1, compared with minus-28 for Collins.
The same poll found that a majority of Maine Democrats support Jackson as the party’s Senate nominee ahead of the July 25 convention, according to the Bangor Daily News.
The survey also measured Collins’ performance on key issues. A majority, 53 percent, rated her work delivering federal funding to Maine as very good or good. However, slim majorities viewed her negatively on major legislation (51 percent), Cabinet confirmation votes (51 percent) and Supreme Court confirmation votes (53 percent).
Collins responds to Jackson’s rise
Collins addressed Jackson’s emergence as her likely opponent in comments to NBC News on July 21.
“I’ve known him for many, many years,” Collins said. “He has been around Augusta for like 20 years and he’s from the same area of Maine that I’m from in northern Maine. He’s had quite a transformation over the years in his political views, but now seems to be firmly aligned with the democratic socialists.”
Jackson responded on X with a post imitating Collins, suggesting she is “very concerned” about his candidacy. In another post highlighting the July 21 poll, he wrote in part, “Working Mainers can’t afford six more years of ‘concern.'”
A race already considered a battleground
The seat Collins has held since 1997 is widely regarded as one of the most competitive races of the 2026 cycle. Among the 13 Republican senators seeking re-election, Collins is the only one representing a state Trump lost in 2024. Democrats currently hold a 47-53 Senate minority, and most analysts believe winning Maine is critical to any path back to the majority.
Collins announced her re-election campaign in February and is running unopposed in the Republican primary. Maine will hold its primary and general elections using ranked-choice voting, with the general election scheduled for November 3.
