Platner’s replacement already leads Susan Collins in critical Maine Senate race

Sen. Susan Collins’ (R-ME) re-election path got a bit more uphill with the exit of Graham Platner, as a new poll shows the scandal-plagued oyster farmer’s replacement is a few points ahead of her.

Platner won the Democratic primary to take on Collins for Maine’s Senate seat, but his campaign was plagued by a staggering series of scandals, including a Nazi Totenkopf tattoo he later had covered, offensive Reddit posts, accusations he was sexting women other than his wife, and then, most disturbingly, on-the-record accusations from two of his ex-girlfriends that he had sexually assaulted them.

He denied the allegations, but the dam of support for his campaign broke, explosively. Democrats rushed to revoke their endorsements and the Maine Democratic Party urged him to step aside. Earlier this month, Platner posted an eleven-minute-long video insisting the accusations against him were “all false,” bitterly casting blame on the “corporate media system” and “political establishment,” before announcing he was “suspending campaign operations.” After initially looking like he might drag his feet until the last possible moment (the deadline for him to withdraw and get his name off the ballot was July 13), Platner filed his paperwork with the Maine Secretary of State Friday afternoon.

With Platner stepping aside, the Democratic line on the ballot will be taken by former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, who had endorsed Platner for Senate but rescinded that support along with everyone else after the sexual assault stories broke.

The Maine Democratic Party held caucuses around the state over the weekend, and Jackson was the strong favorite, getting the majority of delegates’ votes. The new nomination is not yet official until a party meeting next week but the three other main contenders dropped out after the caucus votes and endorsed Jackson.

That may end up proving to be a wise move for Maine Democrats, as a new poll by the University of New Hampshire — taken after Platner quit the race — showed Jackson with a small lead over Collins.

The latest “Pine Tree State Poll” by the University of New Hampshire’s States of Opinion project was conducted from July 15 to 20 with 1,236 Maine residents who completed the survey online. The margin of error was +/- 2.8 percentage points. The sample included 1,178 likely voters in the upcoming general election in November.

Among likely voters, 49% said they would vote for Jackson, 46% for Collins, 2% for another candidate, and 3% undecided.

Both Collins and Jackson got the majority of the voters for their own party’s voters, but Jackson had a four-point edge with independents, getting 46% to Collins’ 42%, and 2% saying another candidate and 10% undecided.

Screenshot via University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

The poll also showed Collins’ favorability numbers underwater, with 35% of survey takers having a favorable opinion of her, 12% neutral, 53% unfavorable, and 0% did not know enough to say.

In contrast, Jackson’s numbers were 15% favorable, 15% neutral, 32% unfavorable, and 15% did not know — giving him potentially space to earn more votes as his campaign gears up to reach out to the voters who don’t yet know him well enough.

Both candidates predictably did better with their own party’s voters, but Collins was both more polarizing (getting more Republicans who liked her and more Democrats who didn’t than vice versa for Jackson) and again polled less favorably with independents than Jackson.

Screenshot via University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

Currently, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics rates the Maine Senate race as a “Toss-Up,” noting Platner’s exit but not changing the rating yet.

Read the UNH poll here.

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