Opinion: To end the wars in Ukraine and Iran, starve Russia’s gas pumps

Sanctioning Russia’s gasoline imports could lead to peace in Ukraine — and Iran.  

Fistfights at Russian gas stations are a sign that Vladimir Putin’s war is finally coming home, giving President Trump an opportunity to end the conflict. Ukrainian drone strikes are destroying Russian energy infrastructure at an impressive pace, producing painful gasoline shortages.

President Trump should use this opportunity wisely and achieve peace through strength, as the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) cwould have argued.

If Trump can continue assisting Ukrainian targeting of Russian energy infrastructure while denying Moscow both gasoline imports and revenue streams, he may be able to force Putin to the negotiating table and secure peace. If peace is secured, Ukraine could then repurpose its vast drone and counter-drone production to support the coalition against Iran. Defeating Russia may therefore secure peace in both Ukraine and the Middle East.

Ukraine’s drone strikes may be turning the tide in the four-year conflict. Ukraine’s aerial and seaborne drones have struck at least 35 vessels over 96 hours from July 5 to 9, knocked out more than half of Russia’s oil refining capacity, driven refinery run rates to their lowest level in 21 years and even struck an oil terminal and naval base in Saint Petersburg ahead of an economic forum attended by Putin.  

Russian popular and elite opinion is souring on the war, and gasoline is a primary reason. Due to Putin’s war of choice, Russia has suffered an astonishing 1.4 million battlefield casualties, with perhaps 450,000 deaths. Despite these grim figures, many Russians have been insulated from the conflict, as Russian casualties have been overwhelmingly concentrated in poorer soldiers from the portions of Russia outside of Moscow and St. Petersburg, the country’s two largest and most politically sensitive cities. 

For the first time, gasoline outages are forcing many ordinary Russians to confront the profound failure of Putin’s war. Moscow has banned exports of jet fuel, gasoline and now, diesel, while gas stations across Russia are starting to see hours-long queues and even fistfights.  

Facing domestic gasoline shortages, Russia is turning to its partners for more imports. Belarus, Russia’s partner in the Union State agreement, has ramped up gasoline exports. China is a major wildcard. Since the start of the U.S.-Iran conflict, it has restricted exports of refined products but recently reversed this decision. Kazakhstan, facing fuel shortages of its own, is restricting exports.  

India is a crucial actor and should be the focus of U.S. diplomatic efforts. India was historically close with the Soviet Union, and Russia supplies India’s refineries with crude oil and its military with the S-400 air defense system. With Russia facing fuel shortages, Moscow has looked to Indian refineries, including the Vadinar refinery, partially owned by Russian oil giant Rosneft, to supply it with gasoline.

The Trump administration should use a mixture of carrots and sticks to deter Indian gasoline sales to Russia. India is arguably the United States’ closest partner in technology, and the two sides share enduring interests. Diplomacy — including the easing of tariffs on Indian exports — could persuade New Delhi to cease gasoline shipments to Russia. Sticks may prove necessary for most other actors. Washington, working in concert with Brussels and other allied capitals, should warn that gasoline sales to Russia will provoke financial sanctions.

Additionally, if Ukraine’s drone complex were freer to export — after domestic rearmament — U.S. global security interests would benefit. Kyiv is the free world’s arsenal to produce cheap, attritable drone strike and counter-drone systems. Against Iran, attritable drones could degrade Tehran’s forces without expending scarce, exquisite munitions, while shared counter-drone systems deployed across the Gulf would blunt the Shahed drone threat and free ballistic-missile interceptors for other fronts.

Finally, victory in Ukraine, and enabling its drones for exports, would deter adversaries elsewhere. Beijing is surely noting Ukraine’s successful drone strike campaign against Russia’s shadow fleet, and pondering whether variants launched from Taiwan could render a quarantine, blockade or invasion intolerable. If Russia is defeated, Ukraine’s drone capabilities would help the free world deter other adversaries, from the Persian Gulf to the Taiwan Strait.  

President Trump has an opportunity to quickly resolve up to two wars and potentially prevent a third one. If he can prevent Russia from obtaining gasoline imports, and thereby ramp up pressure on Russian consumers, he may be able to bring Putin to the negotiating table. In so doing, Trump would provide a coda to Graham’s legacy: peace in Ukraine, and perhaps beyond.

Joseph Webster is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and editor of the independent China-Russia Report. 

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