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These past couple of months, I’ve been debating how undervalued Dak Prescott is. After all, he has two wide receivers who easily could be top-12 fantasy wideouts this season. Prescott’s QB10 average draft position (ADP) doesn’t seem right. So I attempted to turn that hunch into something more actionable.
Since 2011, 44 QBs (or QB tandems when the starter has gotten hurt during the season) have thrown to two top-20 fantasy WRs. These quarterbacks (or tandems based on combined scoring) have finished, on average, as the top 7-to-8 fantasy quarterback. Specifically, their average has been 7.6.
There have been a couple of dramatic underperformers. In 2015, Peyton Manning and Brock Osweiler combined to post the 24th-most QB fantasy points despite throwing to Demaryius Thomas (WR11) and Emmanuel Sanders (WR19). The following year, these same Broncos started Trevor Siemian and (in brief injury relief) Paxton Lynch; these two guys combined to post the 25th most QB fantasy points despite throwing to (no surprise) Thomas (WR16) and Sanders (WR20).
If we scrap those two outliers, the average QB performance among the other 42 instances was 6.8. In 26 of the 44 instances (59%), the QB or QB tandem finished QB7 or better. In fact, 25% of the time they were QB3 or better.
Heading into the 2026 season, assuming CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens stay relatively healthy, we might conclude that -- based on data from these past 15 seasons -- a healthy Dak Prescott has a better-than-50/50 shot at comfortably outperforming fantasy expectations.
For a deeper dive on this topic -- including an assessment of QB performance when throwing to two top-12 WRs -- listen to this podcast episode.
This article originally appeared on Touchdown Wire: New fantasy research links WR data to QB Dak Prescott’s 2026 value
