SerpApi.Org
With the draft over and most of free agency completed, the dust has started to settle on the NBA offseason. We have a pretty clear picture of what rosters will look like, who the contenders in the league will be, and which teams will be focused more on development.
In order to get an even better idea of what the standings might look like at the end of the year, I took my first crack at building a win projection model. Similar to my salary model, it uses the DARKO all-in-one metric as a basis for estimating the amount of wins that each team can expect to produce over the course of a season.
Models obviously aren't perfect, and mine doesn't account for some of the glaring holes or poor fits that remain on some rosters. Using a blend of those win projections and my own subjective analysis, here's how our NBA power rankings are shaping up towards the end of the free agency transaction cycle.
MORE: Summer League winners and losers - Caleb Wilson shines, Aday Mara struggles
NBA Power Rankings
1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Last season: 64-18, No. 1 in the West
Projected record: 64-18
The Thunder are the best team in my model, and by a healthy margin. They did weaken their tremendous depth from last year. Lu Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Isaiah Joe were luxury tax casualties who were traded away. Rookie Aday Mara didn't look ready to contribute immediately in Summer League. Bennett Stirtz looks better but will likely be a minor part of the rotation.
Those are moves on the margins, and reallocating Dort's minutes to Cason Wallace, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Caruso, and other Thunder guards actually makes them stronger. More importantly, the core of this team is still dominant behind Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. And while they shed some role players, they prioritized keeping Isaiah Hartenstein on a long-term deal, allowing Mara to stay on the bench until he's ready. They're going to be an elite two-way team yet again.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Last season: 62-20, No. 2 in the West
Projected record: 57-22
The Spurs had a good offseason, adding a veteran leader and scorer in Tobias Harris, drafting an NBA-ready forward in Tarris Reed, and locking up Julian Champagnie to a below-market deal.
I am higher on this team than my model. They should be better than last season as Victor Wembanyama continues to improve and Dylan Harper gets more minutes. Adding Hall of Fame coach Billy Donovan as an assistant coach should help them remain more poised in pressure situations as well.
3. Toronto Raptors
Last season: 46-36, No. 5 in the East
Projected record: 54-28
The Kawhi Leonard trade is on hold for now, but this projection assumes he eventually lands in Toronto. The Raptors were already an elite defense last year without him. He is much better on that end than recently-departed Brandon Ingram, and he can give them the efficient offensive creation they've been lacking.
Toronto didn't do much aside from the blockbuster Leonard trade. Rookie Allen Graves looked promising in Summer League and adds to a smart defensive forward group. Kyle Anderson might not have much juice left in the tank but was a fine veteran addition at the minimum.
4. New York Knicks
Last season: 53-29, No. 3 in the East
Projected record: 54-28
It is very hard to repeat these days as NBA champions. The Knicks made it even harder on themselves by refusing to spend into the second apron, costing them important reserve Mitchell Robinson.
New York did bring back Jose Alvarado and Landry Shamet on great team-friendly deals. And they signed Andre Drummond, whose best days are well behind him, to replace Robinson's rebounding. They got worse while the rest of the East improved. They're a playoff riser that looks like they might struggle to stay at the top of the regular season standings.
5. Houston Rockets
Last season: 52-30, No. 5 in the West
Projected record: 54-28
It might seem a bit odd to see the Rockets this high after our last memory of them was their massive fail in the first round of the playoffs. But they're going to be a very good regular season team.
The Rockets were elite with Steven Adams in the lineup and simply good without him. Adams should be totally recovered from his season-ending ankle injury, allowing Houston to pummel teams on the offensive glass again. They also added more toughness and defense with Marcus Smart and brought Tari Eason back on a steal of a five-year, $81.5 million contract.
Perhaps most importantly, Fred VanVleet will be back after missing all of last season with a torn ACL and meniscus. Houston badly missed his leadership, tough shot-making, and point guard savvy on offense. Even if Kevin Durant doesn't match his 78-game output of last year, they should still end up near the top of the West.
6. Boston Celtics
Last season: 56-26, No. 2 in the East
Projected record: 54-28
It might sting for Celtics fans to not see Jaylen Brown wearing green this season. But they will still be a regular season juggernaut. Jayson Tatum's return should ensure that Boston doesn't see too much of a drop off, and Paul George fits in perfectly to Joe Mazzulla's system.
Mitchell Robinson and Mike Conley are also underrated acquisitions. Robinson should help Boston continue to win the math battle, vacuuming up offensive rebounds. And Conley brings some backup ballhandling and depth.
MORE: What's next for the Celtics? Evaluating Boston with Paul George
7. Denver Nuggets
Last season: 54-28, No. 3 in the West
Projected record: 53-29
The Peyton Watson free agency situation is yet to be resolved. The Nuggets need him back, because their depth isn't great. They could continue cutting pieces as they try to climb their way out of a massive luxury tax bill.
Denver was further hurt by losing backup big man Jonas Valanciunas, replacing him with a worse player in Marvin Bagley. And they also lost Tim Hardaway Jr.'s shooting. No. 35 pick Trevon Brazile did look good in Summer League, but the Nuggets don't appear better than last year's team. Luckily, Nikola Jokic won't allow them to fall much.
SN MEDIA POLL: Nikola Jokic still best player in NBA
8. Detroit Pistons
Last season: 60-22, No. 1 in the East
Projected record: 47-35
The Pistons had a spectacular 60-win regular season that led the Eastern Conference, but they're due for some regression. Vegas has them dropping to 50 wins, and my model is even more bearish than that. The playoffs showed that they need more offense, and Jalen Duren needs to be more consistent.
Duren still hasn't come to terms on a new deal with Detroit, but the assumption is that he will be back. Even with him, Detroit got worse by exchanging Tobias Harris for John Collins, trading away Isaiah Stewart, and moving Caris LeVert.
Isaiah Joe is a good addition to add shooting. Kevin Huerter was brought back, and a full season with him should help space the floor better. And rookie Ebuka Okorie is going to be an automatic paint touch. But the rest of the East improved more than the Pistons, and they needed to get more help for Cade Cunningham.
© Sam Sharpe-Imagn Images
9. Minnesota Timberwolves
Last season: 49-33, No. 6 in the West
Projected record: 50-32
Credit the Wolves for looking at their roster and realizing that they had to aim higher. They traded away Julius Randle and Naz Reid, leaving a big hole at power forward. But their upside is a lot higher after adding LaMelo Ball to take some of the ballhandling pressure off Anthony Edwards.
Ball, Edwards, the recently re-signed Ayo Dosunmu, and Jaden McDaniels should get the Wolves playing a lot faster than in the past. And Rudy Gobert is still back there to clean everything up defensively. They still need more depth at power forward, but this is a very good team.
10. Cleveland Cavaliers
Last season: 52-30, No. 4 in the East
Projected record: 51-31
The Cavs signaled that they are Donovan Mitchell's team, signing him to a massive extension. Their next potential domino, LeBron James, remains up in the air. If he signs, then they should catapult into contender status in the East. If not, then they still have a good team that is coming off an Eastern Conference Finals appearance and should benefit from a full season of Max Strus.
11. Los Angeles Lakers
Last season: 53-29, No. 4 in the West
Projected record: 46-36
It's tough to replace LeBron James, but that was the task that the Lakers were given. They also needed to upgrade from Deandre Ayton and add more 3-and-D players around Luka Doncic.
They succeeded in those regards, giving Walker Kessler a massive deal and bringing in Quentin Grimes. Sandro Mamukelashvili and Collin Sexton are more offensively-slanted players, but both can complement Doncic and newly-re-signed Austin Reaves nicely.
This Lakers team does fit around Doncic better. It will outperform the model's output of 46 wins, mostly due to a leap from Reaves. They still need a third guy though. It's unclear if Kessler's injury issues will allow him to be that player.
12. Miami Heat
Last season: 43-39, No. 10 in the East
Projected record: 45-37
The model is a bit conservative on the Heat. Adding Giannis Antetokounmpo should lead to more than a two-win uptick from last season.
There are concerns about this roster, though. Tyler Herro and Norman Powell are both gone. The Heat badly needed their shooting to fit around Giannis, and they have bad depth up-and-down the roster. Tim Hardaway Jr. can help, but they need more. Erik Spoelstra has always found diamonds in the rough. He will need to do it again.
MORE: Grading the Giannis Antetokounmpo Bucks-Heat blockbuster
13. Philadelphia 76ers
Last season: 45-37, No. 7 in the East
Projected record: 42-40
The Sixers are another team where the model is more bearish than I am. Trading Paul George for Jaylen Brown certainly increases the talent level of the team. The fit may be a bit awkward though as Brown, Tyrese Maxey, VJ Edgecombe, and Joel Embiid try to work out a balance.
Philadelphia made some other nice moves on the margins. Dean Wade fills a huge need as a 3-and-D forward that is better than departed free agents Quentin Grimes and Kelly Oubre. Anfernee Simons was brought in on a below-market deal to provide shooting and scoring. And rookie Labaron Philon looks like he could contribute immediately as a savvy point guard with great handle.
This is still a shallow team though, particularly at center. That generally leads to fewer wins in the regular season but a higher playoff ceiling.
MORE: Give the Sixers a 'B' on the Paul Georgie-Jaylen Brown trade
14. Indiana Pacers
Last season: 19-63, No. 14 in the East
Projected record: 39-43
The Pacers are another team that could struggle from a lack of depth. Tyrese Haliburton will be back, which will help raise them considerably from their 19 wins last year. So will a full year of Ivica Zubac. Kelly Oubre is a decent two-way wing, and the Pacers traded their way into backup point guard Braden Smith in the second round in order to keep the ball moving.
Haliburton and Zubac will be good in the playoffs, but the Pacers might be late-season risers just as they were during their Finals run. Last season showed that Indiana's young players are not ready to contribute to winning. They still need some more guys, particularly in the frontcourt.
15. Atlanta Hawks
Last season: 46-36, No. 6 in the East
Projected record: 42-40
The Hawks are taking a patient approach to building their team, continuing to build assets in savvy trades like taking on Devin Carter in exchange for a second-round pick, taking on Aaron Wiggins in a salary dump, and trading their busted No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher for two depth pieces in Lu Dort and Ryan Nembhard. They drafted a fantastic young point guard prospect in Kingston Flemings, which should lessen the burden on Jalen Johnson.
Johnson needed more help during a disappointing playoff run. CJ McCollum and Jock Landale are back to provide more floor spacing, and Jonathan Kuminga's future is still up in the air.
This is a good Hawks team that is allowing its younger players room to breathe rather than disrupting their chemistry with an overpaid veteran. The Hawks should continue to be feisty, but are still a move or two away from becoming one of the top teams in the East.
16. Orlando Magic
Last season: 45-37, No. 8 in the East
Projected record: 42-40
Orlando made a highly respected coaching hire in Sean Sweeney, but a new voice on the sideline doesn't magically solve their most pressing roster issues. The Magic entered the summer desperately needing more shooting and better guard play. They didn't really address either.
Bringing back Nikola Vucevic on a one-year deal adds a familiar face and some frontcourt floor-spacing, but he wasn't even in Boston's rotation in their final playoff game. If Orlando wants to beat this 42-win projection, they need to get better chemistry between Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner along with another leap from promising guard Anthony Black.
17. Golden State Warriors
Last season: 37-45, No. 10 in the West
Projected record: 44-38
The Warriors' season is going to be determined by health. Stephen Curry's knee issues limited his minutes, and it's unclear how much of an effect that will have this season. The same goes for Kristaps Porzingis' availability. Jimmy Butler and Moses Moody will miss big chunks of the season as they recover from their surgeries too.
Yaxel Lendeborg looks about as NBA-ready as any rookie can be, and he will have to soak up a lot of minutes. Bringing back De'Anthony Melton and Al Horford on reasonable deals will help too.
The Warriors still have some cards left to play. They're in the hunt for Anthony Davis and LeBron. Even if they miss on those two, an average season of health from Curry should keep them near .500.
18. Portland Trail Blazers
Last season: 42-40, No. 8 in the West
Projected record: 43-39
The Blazers made the biggest splash of the summer by trading for superstar guard Ja Morant, pairing him with Damian Lillard in what will instantly become one of the most interesting backcourts in the NBA. They also solidified their center rotation by securing Robert Williams III on an excellent team-friendly deal and taking a flier on Brandon Carlson.
The problem? Portland did absolutely nothing to cure their horrific lack of shooting. The fit between Lillard and Morant is also wonky and projects to be the worst defensive starting backcourt in the league. New coach Micah Nori will have his hands full.
Portland needs to find some shooting and forward depth if they want to escape the play-in tier, possibly by trading either Jrue Holiday or Scoot Henderson.
19. Phoenix Suns
Last season: 45-37, No. 7 in the West
Projected record: 40-42
The Suns re-signed three role players in Collin Gillespie, Jordan Goodwin, and Mark Williams to excellent deals, They brought in Luke Kennard to add shooting and playmaking. And they made a risky trade by acquiring Miles Bridges in exchange for Royce O'Neale, Grayson Allen, and an unprotected 2033 pick.
Bridges does fill a need at power forward, but that was too high of a price to pay for a move that only makes them marginally better. Devin Booker has quietly begun to decline, and this team overachieved last season with a career year from Dillon Brooks. Jordan Ott is certainly a brilliant coach, but this roster simply doesn't have the weapons to get out of the middle of the West.
20. Charlotte Hornets
Last season: 44-38, No. 9 in the East
Projected record: 38-44
The Hornets were one of the most fun offenses in the league, barraging teams with a 3-point attack unmatched by any other. They traded away the engine of that attack in moving off LaMelo Ball, but somehow they added even more shooting talent in Naz Reid, Royce O'Neale, Grayson Allen, and rookie Christian Anderson.
They will struggle to create advantages at the same level, but they should still shoot the cover off the ball. Re-signed Coby White has been a point guard before. He can be adequate in that role, and Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller will get turns initiating the offense as well.
The Hornets should take a small step back this year. They will be better poised for a higher future though with the picks coming in from the Ball and Bridges trades.
21. Los Angeles Clippers
Last season: 42-40, No. 9 in the West
Projected record: 34-48
This is a very different Clippers team from last season. Gone are James Harden, Kawhi Leonard, and Ivica Zubac. Darius Garland showed promise after being acquired at the trade deadline, and No. 5 pick Keaton Wagler will have plenty of opportunity. He did not have a good Summer League, struggling to create separation, but he will bring strong shooting ability to the table.
Newcomer Brandon Ingram will also soak up a lot of offensive possessions with his midrange mastery, and Rui Hachimura has turned into a terrific scorer. The Clippers have enough veterans to be a respectable team, but they are clearly taking a step back this season.
22. Memphis Grizzlies
Last season: 25-57, No. 13 in the East
Projected record: 33-49
The Grizzlies stripped everything down to the studs, moving Desmond Bane, Jaren Jackson Jr., Ja Morant, and Santi Aldama over the course of the last year. That has allowed them to turn the keys over to No. 3 pick Cameron Boozer, whose do-everything approach to the game will be much-needed.
The Grizzlies still have enough veterans to not completely bottom out. Isaiah Stewart was born to play in Memphis with his grit-and-grind style, Zach Edey was dominant before injuries shortened his season, and so was Ty Jerome. Jaylen Wells, Cedric Coward, Karim Lopez, and free agent acquisition Quinten Post round out good young depth.
That is a pretty deep team, and they should surprise some folks by improving from last year despite losing significant talent.
NBA DRAFT: First-round grades | Ranking team performances
23. New Orleans Pelicans
Last season: 26-56, No. 11 in the West
Projected record: 31-51
The Pelicans have been very quiet in free agency. Their lone transaction was to bring back DeAndre Jordan on a two-year minimum signing.
This is clearly a team that needs to make some more moves. Jordan Poole doesn't have much of a role on the franchise any more, and Trey Murphy's name is in constant trade talks. Zion Williamson and Derik Queen didn't look like they could play on the court together. There's still a ton of work to do in order to turn this team around.
24. Utah Jazz
Last season: 22-60, No. 15 in the West
Projected record: 30-52
The Jazz are expected to take a huge leap this season. They had to pull out all of the stops to get down to 22 wins, and they added talented No. 2 pick Darryn Peterson in the draft.
Some analysts have this team as a top six team in the West. I'm not seeing it. They're going to be vastly improved on defense after adding Jaren Jackson Jr. for a whole season, but losing Walker Kessler will hurt tremendously. Utah brought back Jusuf Nurkic, who has declined considerably over the last several years. Jaxson Hayes is a decent backup, but they are very thin at the position. Lauri Markkanen could be moved to center, but that leaves another hole at small forward where Cody Williams still doesn't look ready to contribute.
The Jazz will be better, but Peterson is going to need time to acclimate to the league. They have nice upside but still look a year away.
25. Dallas Mavericks
Last season: 26-56, No. 12 in the West
Projected record: 26-56
The Mavericks shook things up at the top, hiring executive Masai Ujiri and coach Dusty May to lead the next iteration of the team. May's Michigan forward Morez Johnson looked impressive in Summer League, and Santi Aldama is a quality starter who was added via trade. Zaccharie Risacher adds more depth at wing. Kyrie Irving's return should provide some much-needed ballhandling and creation.
Despite those upgrades, the Mavericks are still very much pointed towards a rebuild. Klay Thompson doesn't look like he has much left in the tank and Dereck Lively still isn't recovered from his foot injury. Irving's backup, Sergio de Larrea, looked good in summer league but is completely unproven. And as good as Cooper Flagg is, he still needs more time before he can carry this team into the playoffs.
26. Chicago Bulls
Last season: 31-51, No. 12 in the East
Projected record: 26-56
The new leadership in Chicago finally committed to a hard, honest rebuild. They nailed the draft, making the consensus correct choice by selecting Caleb Wilson at No. 4 and grabbing Dailyn Swain at No. 15.
Rather than eating toxic contracts for future picks, they used cap space to sign solid, highly flexible and tradeable assets in Norman Powell, Nic Claxton, and Zach Collins. These veterans will provide a structurally sound environment for their young rookies to develop. The Bulls will lose a lot of games this year, but for the first time in years, Chicago fans can actually breathe a sigh of relief.
MORE: Best-case and worst-case scenarios for 2026-27 Bulls
27. Milwaukee Bucks
Last season: 32-50, No. 11 in the East
Projected record: 26-56
The Bucks were a bad team without Giannis last season. They'll have to go a full 82 games without their star now, and they'll be playing young players who aren't ready to contribute to winning yet.
No. 10 pick Brayden Burries surprised a lot of people with how well he played in Las Vegas. No. 13 pick Nate Ament looked very much like a project though, as expected. The future lies in those two, along with Tyler Herro and the other young prospects acquired by the Heat.
Milwaukee is going to be working from a pretty severe salary cap disadvantage too as they deal with Damian Lillard's stretched-out contract and a massive overpay for Gary Trent Jr. over the next four seasons.
28. Washington Wizards
Last season: 17-65, No. 15 in the East
Projected record: 22-60
The Wizards are expected to be competitive in the East after drafting AJ Dybantsa No. 1 and adding Trae Young and Anthony Davis for a full season. The model isn't seeing it, and neither am I.
Young is certainly a good player, but he was experiencing a pretty severe decline in Atlanta before getting traded. His 3-point accuracy has been falling for the past several seasons, and his normally-reliable floater tailed off. He looked like he had lost a step athletically. He should still bring great passing, particularly on lobs to Davis, but he's a good-not-great player these days.
Davis is still playing at an All-Star level. The issue is that he rarely plays. He might not be on this roster for the whole year. If he is, then it's tough to envision him playing more than 65 games.
Washington's other young players should get significantly better with Young setting them up. They were overtaxed with creating too much offense last year. This is still a very raw team though. While they should be better than last year, I'm having a hard time seeing them sniffing the playoffs.
29. Brooklyn Nets
Last season: 20-62, No. 13 in the East
Projected record: 22-60
Julius Randle was a very nice pickup for the Nets as a guy who has brought winning to his last two stops in New York and Minnesota and can always get a decent shot off in the halfcourt. Michael Porter Jr. proved last year that he's more than a chucker too. That gives the Nets two good veteran scorers to lean on. They should also get better by removing Nic Claxton from the starting role and giving more opportunity to Day'Ron Sharpe.
The rest of this roster is still pretty thin. No. 6 pick Mikel Brown will get point guard opportunities. He's a wild passer who also has moments of sheer brilliance. Egor Demin looked much-improved from last year in Las Vegas and will get opportunities with the ball too. And guard Nolan Traore was perhaps the team's most promising rookie from last season.
Brooklyn won't win a ton of games though, and they don't have much incentive to get out of the relegation zone given that the Rockets can swap picks with them in 2027.
30. Sacramento Kings
Last season: 22-60, No. 14 in the West
Projected record: 21-61
The Kings were in a very bad situation this summer. They were an expensive team with a huge tax payment, and they were projected to be near the bottom of the standings.
Sacramento's main priority therefore was to save money. They did that by attaching a draft asset to move off Devin Carter and stretch-and-waiving DeMar DeRozan. Zach LaVine opted into the last year of his $49 million contract, and he is one of the most overpaid players in the league next season.
Putting aside the financial picture, the Kings did get a franchise point guard in the draft with Darius Acuff and tried to add win-now help in sharpshooter Alex Karaban. Both had disappointing Summer League performances, but fans shouldn't put too much stock into those exhibition games.
For now, this franchise is all about Acuff's development. Domantas Sabonis could be out the door, and they don't have nearly enough depth to do anything other than lose a lot of games yet again.
