National writer firmly slams the brakes on Cowboys' 2026 hype train

The Landry Hat · Jul 20, 2026 14:00 · 3 min read

National writer firmly slams the brakes on Cowboys' 2026 hype train — Dallas Cowboys head coach Brian Schottenheimer addresses the media before practice at the Ford Center at the Star Training Facility in Frisco, Texas. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Dallas Cowboys' win total for the 2026 NFL season is set at 9.5, and not everyone believes they will go over that number.

The Dallas Cowboys are officially everyone’s favorite sleeper heading into the 2026 NFL season. Over the last few weeks, more national analysts have come to the conclusion that the Cowboys could be a team to be reckoned with in the NFC, and it’s not hard to see why.

They return all 11 starters on offense, including the league’s best wide receiver tandem and a young offensive line. Dak Prescott is coming off a big season, and (knocks on wood) he is the healthiest he’s been in several years. But the real reason for the optimism is the defense, which saw plenty of change this offseason.

However, despite all of the additions on that side of the ball, there are still some out there who don’t believe in this version of the Dallas Cowboys. And after back-to-back seven-win seasons, it’s also not hard to understand the pessimism.

Will the Dallas Cowboys go under their 2026 projected win total?

The Athletic's Vic Tafur took a look at every team’s projected win total going into the 2026 season. The Cowboys' has been set at 9.5, which is fairly consistent among most sportsbooks. However, Tafur believes the Cowboys will win more than seven games but won’t get to double-digits:

“If rookie safety Caleb Downs is a star, which is possible, we’re going to lose this one. Same goes if George Pickens isn’t a distraction all season long. The cornerbacks aren’t very good, and the offense is never as good as it should be. The Cowboys tried to address their defense and will improve on back-to-back seven-win seasons, but let’s not go wild.”

One of the things going against the Cowboys this season is that they have a brutal schedule. They’ll face the AFC South and the NFC West, which combined to send five teams to the playoffs last season.

They’ll also take on other teams with high-projected win totals, such as the Ravens and Packers, early in the season. There aren’t many layup wins on the schedule for the Cowboys, and they could be a significantly improved team on the field, but it might not show up in the win-loss column.

They also play a brutal stretch in the middle of the season with games against the Eagles, 49ers, Rams, and Seahawks all within five weeks. That stretch could very well make-or-break the Cowboys in 2026.

Time will tell if Dallas can go over its 9.5-win total, but there is no doubt this team is more talented on paper than a year ago. Tafur is right that Downs could be the ultimate difference for Dallas, as an elite safety could change all of the angles on defense for this team.

The Cowboys are certainly banking on him becoming a superstar, and his development could be key for the defense turning around sooner rather than later.

Dallas has all the pieces in place to be a serious contender in the NFC this season. And we are just two months away from finding out if they can take that next step as a franchise.