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Almost exactly 18 months into President Donald Trump‘s second term, new polling shows a political map that still reflects America‘s familiar partisan divide—and also one where many of the president’s early advantages have narrowed.
The data comes from Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of 118,495 registered voters. A Newsweek analysis compares Trump‘s approval rating on July 20, 2026, with where it stood when he returned to office on January 20, 2025, with net approval calculated as approve minus disapprove.
Nationally, Trump receives 38 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval, leaving him clearly underwater overall, with a net approval rating of -19.
The state-by-state map tells a similar story: strongest in Republican territory, deeply negative in Democratic strongholds, and struggling across much of the battleground map.
Key Points
- Trump is underwater in every major battleground state 18 months into his second term.
- His strongest support remains concentrated in Republican strongholds, led by Wyoming, North Dakota, and Idaho.
- Several states that began Trump’s second term with positive net approval now sit underwater, including Florida, Ohio, and Texas.
- Younger voters, independents, and postgraduates remain among Trump’s weakest demographic groups.
Why It Matters
New state-by-state polling shows the president underwater in every swing state, meaning even small shifts could shape Congress in 2026.
Use the map below to explore where Trump’s approval rating stands in each state after 18 months in office
Deep Red States Remain Trump’s Strongest Territory
Trump continues to post positive net approval across much of the Republican heartland, though several of the margins are significantly smaller than when he returned to office.
Wyoming remains his strongest state at +21 net approval (57 percent approve vs. 36 percent disapprove), followed by North Dakota at +19, West Virginia at +17, and Alabama at +14. Idaho and South Dakota both post +12, while Oklahoma stands at +10.
Even so, those figures represent a clear decline from January 2025. Wyoming began Trump’s second term at +47, North Dakota at +34, Idaho at +34, and West Virginia at +35.
Kentucky offers one of the clearest examples of how the landscape has shifted. It opened Trump’s second term at +23 net approval, but now sits at +1 (46 percent approve to 45 percent disapprove).
Support across much of the Republican map remains positive, but the margins are noticeably thinner than they were 18 months ago.
Swing States Remain Underwater
The most politically important story remains the battleground map. Trump is now underwater in every major swing state:
- Arizona: -11 (42 percent Approve / 53 percent Disapprove)
- Georgia: -21 (36 percent Approve / 57 percent Disapprove)
- Nevada: -18 (38 percent Approve / 56 percent Disapprove)
- North Carolina: -13 (41 percent Approve / 54 percent Disapprove)
- Pennsylvania: -14 (40 percent Approve / 54 percent Disapprove)
- Wisconsin: -14 (41 percent Approve / 55 percent Disapprove)
- Florida: -10 (43 percent Approve / 53 percent Disapprove)
- Ohio: -10 (42 percent Approve / 52 percent Disapprove)
Several of those states were either positive or evenly split when Trump took office. Florida has moved from +9 to -10. Ohio has fallen from +8 to -10. Nevada has shifted from 0 to -18, while North Carolina has gone from 0 to -13.
The deficits are not overwhelming, but they reinforce a broader pattern: Trump is underwater across the states that are likely to play the biggest role in shaping control of Congress and the White House.
States Where Approval Has Fallen The Most
Every state in the tracker has seen a lower net approval rating than it did on January 20, 2025. Some of the steepest declines have occurred in places that initially gave Trump some of his strongest support.
Among the largest drops:
- Wyoming: +47 to +21 (down 26 points)
- Kentucky: +23 to +1 (down 22 points)
- Florida: +9 to -12 (down 19 points)
- Idaho: +34 to +12 (down 22 points)
- North Dakota: +34 to +19 (down 15 points)
- Ohio: +8 to -10 (down 18 points)
- West Virginia: +35 to +17 (down 18 points)
- Tennessee: +25 to +7 (down 18 points)
- Texas: +6 to -10 (down 16 points)
- Nevada: 0 to -18 (down 18 points)
The notable feature of those declines is that many are occurring in Republican-leaning states rather than places where Trump was already unpopular.
Deep Blue States Remain Firmly Negative
At the other end of the map, opposition to Trump remains deeply entrenched.
Hawaii posts the lowest net approval rating at -59, followed by Vermont at -54, Maryland at -49, California at -42 and Massachusetts at -46.
Washington stands at -39, while New York sits at -35 and Oregon at -40.
In these states, the story is less about dramatic movement and more about opposition remaining firmly in place. Trump was heavily underwater when he began his second term and remains so now.
What The Demographic Data Shows
The national demographic breakdown helps explain why the state map looks the way it does.
Trump’s weakest numbers continue to come among younger voters. Among adults aged 18 to 34, just 26 percent approve of his job performance while 68 percent disapprove.
Among those aged 35 to 49, approval stands at 30 percent and disapproval at 62 percent.
Independents also remain negative, with 32 percent approving and 60 percent disapproving.
Women disapprove by a 63-to-32 margin, while men are more closely divided at 44 percent disapprove and 50 percent approve.
Education remains a major dividing line. Among postgraduates, Trump’s approval stands at 26 percent compared with 70 percent disapproval. Among non-college graduates, the split narrows to 42 percent approve and 53 percent disapprove.
These demographic divides help explain why Trump performs more strongly in parts of the Republican heartland than in highly educated metropolitan areas and battleground states.
The Middle Of The Map Has Tightened
One notable feature of the current map is how many states now sit close to the divide between positive and negative territory.
Indiana stands at +4. Utah is +5. Kansas sits at +5. Nebraska is 0, while Louisiana is -2 and Missouri is -6.
Mississippi and Kentucky are effectively even at +1.
That clustering suggests a map where the overall partisan shape remains familiar, but where many state-level margins have compressed.
A Map That Looks Familiar—But Weaker
Eighteen months into Trump’s second term, the political map still broadly resembles the one he began with. His strongest states remain overwhelmingly Republican. His weakest remain concentrated in Democratic territory. The geography has not fundamentally changed.
The margins, however, have.
At the start of his second term, Trump held clear positive net approval across much of the Republican map and was competitive in several key battlegrounds. Today, many of those same states are either narrowly positive, evenly balanced or clearly negative.
The result is a map that retains its familiar partisan shape—but one where the president has less room for error than he did when he first returned to office.
What Approval Ratings Mean for 2026 Midterms
Political scientists and campaign strategists closely monitor presidential job approval at the 18-month mark, as it historically serves as one of the single best predictors of midterm election outcomes.
According to Ballotpedia’s polling index for week 78 of Trump’s second term, his national approval rating averages around 40 percent.
At the same point during his first term in July 2018, Trump held a 43.2 percent approval rating—shortly before Democrats captured the House in the 2018 midterms.
By comparison, former President Joe Biden stood at 38.6 percent approval at week 78 of his presidency in July 2022.
Generic Congressional Ballot Indicators
The presidential approval headwind is mirrored in generic congressional ballot surveys released in mid-July 2026:
- Ipsos / Washington Post: Democrats +3 (48 percent to 45 percent)
- CNBC / Hart Research: Democrats +4 (49 percent to 45 percent)
- FiftyPlusOne Aggregated Average: Democrats +5 (49.2 percent to 43.9 percent)
While generic ballot surveys do not measure state-by-state nuances, persistent single-digit leads for the opposition party combined with a presidential approval rating stuck in the high 30s or low 40s historically signal major challenges for the incumbent party in keeping control of Congress.
What The White House Says
The White House has continued to point to Trump’s 2024 election victory as its clearest measure of public support, arguing that the nearly 80 million Americans who voted for him delivered a mandate for his agenda.
In a response the administration has used repeatedly in reply to polling inquiries, spokesman Davis Ingle said “the ultimate poll was November 5, 2024,” adding that Trump is continuing to deliver on a “popular and commonsense agenda” and that “this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Edward Pearcey.
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