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The public hasn't taken the Detroit Lions' letdown year at face value, and understandably so. They were all sorts of banged up on both sides of the ball, and at key areas, no less.
It's easy to turn a blind eye to the Lions' shortcomings in 2025 or point to injuries. Their star-studded roster is loaded with talent, and they still finished with a winning record in the grand scheme of things. A worst-to-first turnaround is well within the range of outcomes, and even likely, according to the metrics.
Detroit has the highest chance of winning the NFC North in 2026 at 38 percent, per ESPN's Kevin Seifert, who cited the network's analytics. For context, the Green Bay Packers are second at 33 percent; the Chicago Bears' 19 percent is third; the Minnesota Vikings' 10 percent ranks fourth.
NFC North rivals won't like the slack the Detroit Lions are getting after a last-place finish
Packers and Vikings fans might have something to say about the projections, considering they swept the Lions last season. The Bears faithful may also argue their rising team is only scratching the surface after claiming its first division title since 2018.
However, confidence in Detroit evidently remains high. Their tremendous upward trajectory under head coach Dan Campbell allows for some leeway coming off a down campaign. It's easy to envision them getting back on track with better health and a new play-caller in offensive coordinator Drew Petzing — and quickly.
Win-loss and head-to-head records aside, the Lions still have a very legitimate claim as the Black and Blue division's top squad. Their plus-68 point differential was better than that of half of this past season's playoff clubs, including Green Bay and Chicago. Minnesota outscored its opponents by a meager 11 points across 17 games, buoyed by a five-game win streak to close out the schedule.
Not to mention, seven of the "Cardiac Bears'" 12 wins, including the postseason, were fueled by comebacks in the final two minutes of the fourth quarter/overtime. Some will call it a clutch gene, while others could argue it was luck. As usual, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle, though Detroit's heated rival is bound for negative regression.
There's no denying that the race for the NFC North crown will be hyper-competitive. The Packers, Bears and Vikings are all formidable foes with the personnel and coaching needed to make noise in the NFL. But at the end of the day, the Lions are still the measuring stick.
Today's best reads
- Ranking NFC North head coaches ahead of contentious 2026 season
- Super Bowl champion reveals why Dan Campbell is now under pressure for Lions
- Ranking the NFC North's top 4 QB's entering the 2026 NFL season
- ESPN's player rankings reveal Lions advantage that makes playoffs non-negotiable
- Lions offense might have a run for its money from the Vikings this season
This article was originally published on sidelionreport.com as Lions just got the NFC North validation their rivals won't want to hear.
