Kalshi launches midterm election forecasting hub

Kalshi launched a new online hub Wednesday for midterm election forecasting, displaying prediction market odds for major races alongside polling averages, fundraising data and other election information.

The platform touted its “Midterms Hub” as a “one-stop-shop for state and federal election forecasting,” featuring Senate, House and gubernatorial races.

“Prediction markets don’t care about spin or partisanship,” Kalshi CEO and co-founder Tarek Mansour said in a statement. “They cut through polarization and show you what the wisdom of the crowds actually believes, backed by real money, not rhetoric.”

“That kind of clarity is rare right now and that’s what people are getting with the Midterms Hub,” he added.

Kalshi argued prediction markets can provide a clearer picture of races than traditional methods of gauging people’s views, such as polling, by relying on the “wisdom of the crowds.”

The platforms, which have surged in popularity in recent years, allow users to place wagers on the outcome of various events, from sports to politics. Kalshi’s push into elections was bolstered by a 2024 court decision, which deemed betting on federal races legal.

Its new hub will show live trading odds on midterm races, as well as aggregated polling averages, candidates’ latest fundraising reports, historical elections results and news and analysis from political outlets.

Prediction market users across both Kalshi and Polymarket have traded nearly $200 million on the results of the upcoming midterm elections so far, according to a recent NBC News analysis.

However, the platforms have faced some resistance on this front. The Wisconsin Election Commission warned residents Tuesday that betting on elections they vote in is illegal in the state and could cause their ballots to be disqualified.

“With prediction markets and online gambling platforms growing in popularity, the Wisconsin Elections Commission is warning voters: if you bet on an election – it could cost you your vote,” the commission wrote.

The statement drew a sharp rebuke from Kalshi. Robert DeNault, the company’s head of enforcement and legal counsel, argued on X that “threatening to prosecute Wisconsin voters and strip away their voting rights for engaging in legal trading activity is unconstitutional and illegal.”

“The Wisconsin Elections Commission should retract this guidance before courts are required to force them to do so,” he added.

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