Intel's sky-high rally put to the test as expectations soar

Intel (INTC) is scheduled to report second-quarter results after the closing bell on Thursday, July 23, with investors looking for evidence that the chipmaker's remarkable 186% year-to-date rally can continue.

Wall Street expects Intel to return to profitability and post its strongest quarterly revenue growth in nearly six years, as AI-driven demand, a rebound in data center processors, and optimism around CEO Lip-Bu Tan's turnaround strategy have fueled a sharp re-rating of the stock.

Analysts expect the chipmaker to report earnings per share of $0.22, compared with a loss of $0.10 in the year-ago quarter, on revenue of $14.45B, up 12.0% year over year. Over the past two years, Intel has beaten consensus EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 88% of the time.

Sentiment has strengthened heading into the report, with 31 upward EPS revisions and no downward revisions over the past three months. Revenue estimates have also seen 30 upward revisions and zero downward revisions, reflecting growing confidence in the company's near-term outlook.

Beyond the headline numbers, investors will focus on demand for AI and data center processors, progress in Intel Foundry Services, updates on potential new foundry customers, and management's outlook for the second half of 2026. The earnings call will also be closely watched for commentary on manufacturing execution and margins as Intel continues its turnaround efforts.

Intel's foundry business has gained momentum with customer wins, including a manufacturing agreement with Tesla (TSLA). Investors will also be looking for any commentary on a potential chip manufacturing partnership with Apple (AAPL), following U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement of a possible deal in April that neither company has confirmed.

The prospect of adding blue-chip customers to its foundry business has become an increasingly important part of the bullish case for Intel. SA analyst Jack Bowman said, "Intel's strategic shift towards foundry services, similar to TSMC, and partnerships with companies like Apple and Tesla, are key drivers of future growth."