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Alphabet Inc. GOOGL reports second-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, with the call at 4:30 p.m. ET.
Polymarket gives the company a 96% chance of beating estimates, but the more interesting action is on Kalshi, where traders are betting on which words CEO Sundar Pichai and his team will say.
What Kalshi Predicts Sundar Will Say
“Gemini 3” leads at 81%. The model family now runs everything Google sells, from Search to Cloud to the image tools, and the company shipped Gemini 3.6 Flash just yesterday.
“Autonomous” sits at 79%. Waymo is still testing in Las Vegas but removed safety drivers from its fleet there this month, with Denver, San Diego and Tampa to follow. One of the Vegas robotaxis was involved in a crash Saturday that the company said was not its fault, and the unit is reportedly running around 500,000 paid rides a week nationally while targeting 1 million by year-end.
“Nvidia” trades at 75%. Alphabet has guided 2026 capital expenditure to as much as $190 billion, much of it flowing to Nvidia Corp. NVDA chips alongside Google’s own silicon. Analysts may push harder on 2027, since free cash flow fell 47% last quarter and any signal that the spending spree accelerates into next year could overshadow even a clean beat.
“Wiz” trades at 67%. The $32 billion acquisition, the largest in Google’s history, closed March 11, making this the first full quarter with the security firm inside Google Cloud.
“Nano Banana” sits at 65%. The image generation model went viral last year, got a second version in February, and has become one of Google’s most-used consumer AI products.
What Kalshi Predicts The Call Will Skip
“Search Advertising” is a coin flip at 51%. Management will talk about Search, but increasingly as an AI product rather than an ad business, with the revenue framed around Gemini and query growth.
“Regulator” sits at 23% and “European Commission” at just 15%, even though Brussels is reportedly days away from its first fine against Google under the EU’s Digital Markets Act, on top of the Department of Justice’s appeal over search remedies. Traders expect management to keep the focus on the business and leave the courtroom out of it.
“Ironwood,” Google’s own TPU chip, sits at just 32%, less than half the odds on “Nvidia.” Traders expect Pichai to name his supplier before his own silicon, despite a report that Google is developing a new server chip to run Gemini more cheaply.
“SpaceX” trades at 18%. Google was reported in May to be in talks with Elon Musk‘s rocket company to launch its orbital data center project, but traders expect Pichai to keep Project Suncatcher off the call.
Reading The Board
The headline EPS may mislead. Paper gains, mostly on Alphabet’s Anthropic and SpaceX stakes, added $2.35 to last quarter’s $5.11 print, and could inflate tonight’s number too. The cleaner read is Cloud, where analysts want a repeat of Q1’s 63% growth, and whether it justifies capital spending that may reach $190 billion this year.
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This article Google Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Sundar Pichai Say? originally appeared on Benzinga.com.
