SerpApi.Org
The Raiders are looking up at three different teams in the AFC West. The Raiders are coming off a three win season while two divisional opponents made the playoffs, giving Las Vegas a tough road just to compete within the division.
However this year the AFC West title may be more attainable. Since Patrick Mahomes became the Chiefs starter in the 2018 season, the lowest win total for the AFC West winner has been 11 games. The average amount of wins from the first place team in the division has been 13. DVOA projects the Broncos to win the AFC West with a 10-7 record in 2026.
A few bounces in close games, and the Raiders could find themselves in contention for the AFC West into December. Just try not to remember that the Raiders have only won double digit games twice in the last 23 years.
On the pessimistic side, the Raiders are still projected to finish last in the AFC West and are bottom five in the entire league to make the playoffs with just a 15 percent chance, according to DVOA. Only the Browns, Jets and Saints have worse playoff odds.
The Raiders have more excitement and optimism about the direction of the franchise since they moved to Vegas because last season went so poorly and landed Fernando Mendoza as the No. 1 pick. Maybe one more season of finishing near the bottom of the league could help propel the Raiders in 2027 and beyond to contend for the AFC West crown.
AFC West: The best coaching in the NFL
Part of the problem for the Raiders is the depth of the division. The Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos are all in a better spot right now to contend, and none of the three are looking likely to drop off anytime soon. All three have proven, successful head coaches, setting the bar high for Klint Kubiak, as he tries to steer the Raiders past Andy Reid, Jim Harbaugh and Sean Payton. Plus all three seemingly have their quarterback position set for the foreseeable future with Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Bo Nix likely perform well for many years to come.
It will be tough to simply catch one of these teams over the next couple of seasons, but the Raiders will need to topple all three to win the division. While injuries, retirement or just a general downturn in play could happen to anyone, it is much less likely all three of the Raiders divisional opponents stumble at the same time.
