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Republican Representative Byron Donalds leads Democrat David Jolly by 5 points in a new University of North Florida poll of Florida’s governor race.
The new poll found Donalds leading 46 percent to 41 percent among likely voters, with 6 percent of respondents undecided and 5 percent saying they would vote for another candidate. It signals a potentially close race in the Sunshine State despite its rightward drift over the past decade.
Why It Matters
The poll shows how two well-known political figures stack up in a race Democrats are hoping to make competitive in the November midterm elections.
Florida, once a battleground state, shifted toward Republicans over the past decade, backing President Donald Trump by double digits in 2024. But Democrats believe a more favorable national environment could give them a chance to compete in the state. The poll points to a closer race than other recent gubernatorial races in Florida.
Polling does not necessarily predict outcomes but provides an early snapshot of candidates’ name recognition, partisan enthusiasm and the issues motivating voters heading into the statewide contest.
Donalds Leads Jolly in New Florida Governor Poll
The potential matchup between Donalds, who represents the Fort Myers area in Congress and has received Trump’s endorsement, and Jolly, a former Republican who represented Pinellas County in Congress from 2014 to 2017, was included in the new University of North Florida poll. Both candidates currently hold leads in their respective primaries, which are scheduled for August 18.
Sean Freeder, director of the UNF Public Opinion Research Lab, told Newsweek that the race has the potential to become competitive.
“The competitiveness will turn largely on the extent to which Donalds can bring Republicans who don’t vote for him in the primary back into the fold [which I think is now a legitimate question], but it will also turn on whether Jolly can convince the base that his ideology matches today’s Democratic Party,” he said. “I do think this race has the potential to grow tighter over the next couple of months.”
The University of North Florida poll showed that among voters not affiliated with either party, a critical voting bloc, Donalds’ support stood at 39 percent to Jolly’s 38 percent.
Jolly also performed well among Hispanic and Latino voters, an important voting group in Florida, winning support from 53 percent to Donalds’ 35 percent. For comparison, Trump won 58 percent of Latino voters in Florida in 2024.
The poll was conducted July 8-17 among 848 likely voters, using telephone and web-based surveys. It had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
Donalds’ lead was more narrow than that of Republican Senator Ashley Moody in the Senate race, as the poll found her up 10 points over Democratic candidate Alexander Vindman and 8 points over state lawmaker Angie Nixon.
The poll also found that 51 percent disapprove of Trump’s job performance, while 48 percent approve.
Candidates are likely to emphasize issues of affordability, a key issue facing Florida voters, Freeder said.
“I also think AI has the potential to become a big deal in this race, given how strong voters’ feelings are about it, and that Donalds’ opponents have already attacked him based on his financial ties and [somewhat tepid] support for the construction of data centers,” he said.
In a statement to Newsweek, Jolly senior adviser Mark Riddle pushed back on the polling.
“The UNF poll samples a universe that doesn’t exist in Florida’s November election. Even with its flaws, it still affirms that David Jolly is well positioned to win the governorship,” Riddle said.
Ryan Smith, chief strategist for Donalds, told Newsweek that Floridians “don’t want liberal David Jolly’s self-described ‘far left’ policies that will raise taxes, make life more expensive, jeopardize public safety, and import the Democrats’ radical agenda to our state.
“Byron Donalds will be our next governor because he will keep Florida thriving with commonsense policies to make life in the Sunshine State safer, healthier and more affordable,” Smith said.
What Other Polling Shows
Other recent polling suggests a single-digit race.
A Change Research poll, which surveyed 1,593 likely voters May 13-16, showed Jolly up 4 points with 46 percent to Donalds’ 42 percent. It found that 88 percent of Democrats were motivated to vote, compared to 75 percent of Republicans. Change Research is affiliated with Democrats.
A survey from Cherry Communications, conducted among 604 likely voters May 1-9, showed Donalds up 8 points with 47 percent to Jolly’s 39 percent. It was commissioned by the Florida Chamber of Commerce and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A Stetson University poll gave Donalds a lead with 47 percent to Jolly’s 40 percent. It surveyed 848 likely voters March 15-April 13 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
Election forecasters like the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball do not currently view the race as competitive, rating Florida as safe or solid Republican.
Donalds faces several other Republicans in the primary, including Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, former Florida House Speaker Paul Renner and Azora Partners founder James Fishback. Jolly is running in a primary against state Representative Dotie Joseph. Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings withdrew from the race.
What Prediction Markets Show
Republicans are favored in prediction markets, holding an 81 percent chance of winning on Kalshi and an 82 percent on Polymarket as of Monday morning.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates.
Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Florida’s Republican Shift
Florida, once a premier battleground, has become increasingly difficult for Democrats over the past decade. Trump carried it by 13 points in 2024, up from a three-point victory in 2020 and a one-point win in 2016. Former President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 and 2012.
Republicans have also expanded their voter registration advantage, while Democrats have struggled to remain competitive in statewide races. As of June 30, there were 5,569,028 registered Republicans and 4,040,000 registered Democrats in Florida, with an additional 3,324,324 “no party affiliation” voters, according to the Florida Division of Elections.
Democrats outnumbered Republicans as recently as 2020.
Several factors contributed to the realignment. Republicans have made inroads among Latino voters, flipping traditionally Democratic areas, including Miami-Dade County, while Democrats have struggled to counter GOP messaging in the state.
Population growth also played a role. Florida added millions of new residents, many arriving from more conservative states during the COVID-19 pandemic. The GOP’s growing edge was reflected at the ballot box, culminating in Republican Governor Ron DeSantis’ landslide reelection in 2022.
Those victories allowed Republicans to enact a wave of conservative policies in the state that may also be a draw to Republican voters fleeing more progressive states like New York. Over the past several years, Florida enacted conservative‑leaning policies on education, voting, immigration and social issues.
“Older people tend to vote Republican in greater numbers, at least over the past few decades, so over time that advantage is going to accumulate,” Freeder said, adding that older voters are also the most likely to turn out to the polls.
Florida’s Cuban American population has also helped Republicans, he said.
“Cubans make up a significant portion of the state’s population, and they tend to vote Republican, both in greater degrees over the past decade, and much moreso than other Latino groups, which lean much more to the left,” he said.
DeSantis won his first election in 2018 by less than 1 percentage point against Democrat Andrew Gillum. He defeated Democratic former Governor Charlie Crist by nearly 20 points in 2022.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and James Debens
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