Are the Orioles capable of playing winning baseball?

The Orioles had won seven straight before traveling to Boston to face the only team in the league touting a better win streak. The Birds were set to play in their first series in over a year that carried a heightened sense of meaning. Playing the Red Sox—a division opponent in possession of a playoff spot—marked an opportunity for the club to measure itself against a contender.

How did the Orioles respond? They committed four errors and lost a one-run game.

It’s always tempting to over analyze after a bad loss, and yesterday’s rain out only helps the cause. We all know that every outcome counts as one win or loss in the standings, but that game was rich with symbolism. Baltimore pulled Shane Baz (6 IP, 2 ER) after 77 pitches, and both relievers allowed a run. The team left the tying and go-ahead runs in scoring position. Craig Albernaz pinch hit for Christian Encarnacion-Strand despite his strong offensive night, and Sam Huff finished 0-for-3 with three strikeouts for the second consecutive game.

At the same time, Tyler O’Neill squared up a ball that could have kept the Birds alive. The Orioles scored in four different innings despite missing Adley Rutschman and Samuel Basallo. They got another solid start from the rotation, and the Red Sox are obviously a good team too. Winning teams lose all the time, and you shouldn’t make a mountain out of a one-run molehill. But those four errors… Those are the type of plays that make you wonder if this team is capable of playing winning baseball.

So what exactly is winning baseball? Did the Orioles play winning baseball when they won seven consecutive games? It’s kind of like that thing the Supreme Court spent some time discussing in the 1960s. You know it when you see it.

The Orioles have been a bad defensive team all season, but they made some winning plays over that recent stretch. O’Neill extended the game with an impressive catch and throw in Houston. The outfielders made several running grabs, and Brandon Young’s kick save was named MLB’s play of the week.

This team is capable of making the necessary plays, but defense will never be considered a true strength. One or two defensive miscues may be inevitable, but those four errors felt like something more. It felt like the Orioles crumbled in their first big game of the season.

The American League is bad enough that a flawed team is going to make the playoffs. The Orioles could be that team. The question is whether a team like that can do any damage once they get there. Flawed teams can go on a run if they—and stop me if you’re over it by now—play winning baseball.

Jim Palmer has spent enough time explaining the value of hitting the cutoff man, but those things make a difference. Gunnar Henderson is capable of making the “wow” type of plays, but can he remain engaged over nine innings? Baltimore’s shortstop made his 12th error of the season on Monday and could have been credited with another when he failed to catch an 82 MPH line drive in third inning.

The rotation has provided some real reason for hope, and the bullpen has been better than it should be on paper. At a minimum, it feels like the Orioles could hang around with any AL team in a three-game series. Unfortunately, Baltimore is 8-15 in one-run games. Their eight wins are the lowest number of one-run victories in all of baseball.

The Orioles can’t go back and win any of those 15 games, but they can learn from the outcome. The front office, if they plan on buying, must determine what this team really needs. The club probably doesn’t want to pay the premium for Tarik Skubal or Joe Ryan. If acquiring a true ace is off the table, the team doesn’t need another mid-rotation starter.

The bullpen is a different story. The Birds need to flip the script in one-run games, and a shutdown reliever or two would go a long way. Ryan Helsley will be out until at least September, and it’s far too early to expect anything from Félix Bautista.

Will the team address the defense? A steady third baseman that hits righties would work wonders for this team, but nobody is replacing Henderson at short. It feels like the Orioles have been “learning how to win” since 2022, but the sentiment still rings true. The team had an extra day to flush Monday’s loss and can take a big step in the right direction by playing 18 innings of winning baseball today.