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Astronomers around the world are gearing up to record a possible blast of lunar dust near the moon’s Einstein Crater, after a piece of space junk is expected to end its 19-month drift there with a bang.
“Potential observables from this event include the flash at the time of impact,” scientists behind the primary tracking effort wrote in a new paper, in what amounts to an open invitation for anyone with a camera and a clear sky to help document a rare, real-time collision on the moon.
The object in question is the spent upper stage of a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket, cataloged as 2025-010D, which is on course to slam into the lunar surface on August 5, 2026 at approximately 06:35 UTC.
The aerospace company behind the rocket was founded by Elon Musk.
Newsweek reached out to SpaceX, the Royal Astronomical Society and NASA for comment.
Space Junk Expected to Hit the Moon
The rocket stage’s journey began in January 2025, when it successfully launched two private robotic landers toward the moon. Having done its job boosting those spacecraft onto their lunar trajectories, the spent stage ran out of fuel. Unable to propel itself into deep space or return to Earth to burn up harmlessly in the atmosphere, it has instead been tumbling through space for more than a year, its fate essentially sealed the moment its tanks ran dry.
Now, that fate is catching up with it. The stage measures roughly 12 meters long and 4 meters wide and weighs about 4,000 kilograms. It is expected to strike the moon at a punishing 8,750 kilometers per hour, or roughly 5,400 mph.
The collision is set to occur on sunlit terrain near the moon’s eastern limb as seen from Earth, meaning it will happen on the visible side of the moon, in daylight, rather than out of sight on the far side—a stroke of luck for any skywatchers and specialists hoping to observe it.
Researchers used tracking data calculated by astronomer Bill Gray, fed into a high-powered physics simulator, to model what the impact might look like. Because the rocket stage is essentially a hollow metal shell rather than a dense, solid body like a typical asteroid, the simulations suggest it will not punch deep into the lunar surface.
Instead, the structure is expected to crumple and collapse on impact, gouging out a fresh crater somewhere between 20 and 30 meters wide—about the length of a basketball court—while throwing up a plume of lunar dust that could rise several kilometers above the surface.
That dust cloud, along with a brief flash at the moment of impact, is precisely what scientists are hoping to observe.
Will the Collision Impact Our Safety on Earth?
Steven A. Hauck, chair of the Department of Earth, Environmental and Planetary Sciences at Ohio’s Case Western Reserve University, weighed in on the expected sighting, detailing its significance and whether we should be worried for our safety on Earth.
“It is important for several reasons; firstly, impact flashes, similar to those observed by the Artemis II astronauts are the result of objects hitting the moon,” Hauck told Newsweek. “Usually, these are natural asteroids, but because scientists know when and where the impact will happen, as well as the mass and velocity of the SpaceX booster, observations of this impact can help us improve our understanding of the properties and number of very small asteroids that hit the moon when we see their impact flashes.
“This lets us get a better handle on how many small objects are in our neighborhood of the solar system, and there is also a chance that observations by telescopes on Earth will provide information on the chemical composition of the debris that is launched out of the impact crater.”
On the safety of our own planet, Hauck remains optimistic and reassuring.
“The debris of this small impact will remain at the moon,” he added, before going on to clarify that the event will be an opportunity for significant learning, even if it has little impact on Earth.
“The SpaceX booster is an opportunity to know more about the moon, the solar system, and to prepare for observing natural, or perhaps more future-planned impacts,” he said. “Future missions are planned that will place seismometers on the moon that would detect these impacts and help illuminate the interior of our closest neighbor.
“Tracking and locating impact flashes will greatly improve the science return when those events happen in the future.”
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Kara Dolman and Tony Phillips
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