Africa's wildfire season is actually getting shorter, scientists think they know why

Africa is home to around 70% of the world's burned area—the total area of land scorched by wildfires each year—making it the planet's biggest wildfire hotspot. Yet despite this, satellite observations have revealed an unexpected trend over the past two decades: The amount of land burned across the continent has been steadily falling.

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A new study, published in Geophysical Research Letters, suggests one important reason why. Rather than looking at how much rain falls each year, researchers found that "when" rain falls may play an even bigger role in controlling wildfire activity.

Their analysis shows that Africa's dry season has been getting shorter because rains are arriving later in the period when landscapes would normally begin drying out, leaving less time for vegetation to become flammable. These findings could be important for improving seasonal wildfire forecasting and helping countries prepare for the effects.

A changing dry season

Wildfires depend on three key ingredients: something to burn, weather conditions that allow fires to spread and an ignition source such as lightning or human activity. Across much of Africa, grasses provide abundant fuel during the dry season after months of rapid growth in the wet season.

Ph.D. researcher Sharafaldin Mohammed of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and colleagues wanted to understand whether changes in the timing of Africa's dry season could help explain the long-term decline in burned area.

To do this, the researchers analyzed daily rainfall records from three independent datasets covering 1990–2023. They then compared these with satellite observations of burned area and fire counts between 2003 and 2022, allowing them to investigate how shifts in rainfall lined up with changes in wildfire activity across both northern and southern Africa.

The results show a clear pattern. Across the continent, the dry season has become shorter over the past three decades, mainly because it is starting later than it used to. In northern Africa, the onset of the dry season has been delayed by around 1.75 days every decade, while southern Africa has seen a smaller delay of about 0.4 days per decade.

Rain arriving at the right time

The delayed start isn't because the rainy season lasts much longer overall. Instead, the researchers found that rainfall has increased specifically at the beginning of what would normally be the dry season. Those extra showers keep soils and vegetation moist for longer, delaying the point at which grasses dry out enough to burn easily.

As a result, the window in which fires can ignite and spread becomes shorter, with years that have wetter starts to the dry season consistently seeing fewer fires and less land burned.

The team found that Africa's fire season closely mirrors its dry season. In northern Africa, fires typically occur between October and March, peaking in December, while in southern Africa, the main fire season runs from April to September, peaking around July and August.

Although the relationship was clear across much of Africa, it wasn't equally strong everywhere. The link between a shorter dry season and reduced burned area was strongest in northern Africa. In southern Africa, it was weaker, indicating that other factors also influence wildfire activity.

The authors suggest that human activities may partly explain the difference. In many parts of southern Africa, expanding agriculture, roads and other developments have fragmented the landscape, breaking up continuous stretches of vegetation that would otherwise allow fires to spread over large areas. Fire management practices may also play a greater role than climate alone.

There are also some limitations. Satellite observations can miss smaller fires, meaning total fire activity may be underestimated. The analysis also doesn't distinguish between naturally occurring fires and those deliberately started by people for land management or agriculture.

Improving fire forecasts

The findings could have practical implications beyond explaining why Africa's burned area has been declining. Many fire prediction systems rely heavily on rainfall totals, temperature and drought conditions. This study suggests that paying closer attention to the timing of rainfall could improve forecasts of when landscapes are likely to become flammable.

That information could help fire managers prepare for particularly active seasons, allocate firefighting resources more effectively and better understand how changing rainfall patterns may affect future wildfire risk as the climate continues to change.

The study also highlights an important reminder that climate change doesn't simply alter how much rain falls; it can also reshape when it falls. Those shifts in seasonal timing may have major consequences for ecosystems, even if annual rainfall changes only slightly.

In Africa's case, a few extra weeks of rain at the beginning of the dry season appear to be enough to reduce the time vegetation has to dry out, shrinking the continent's wildfire season and leaving millions fewer hectares of land burned each year.

Written for you by our author Hannah Bird, edited by Sadie Harley, and fact-checked and reviewed by Andrew Zinin—this article is the result of careful human work. We rely on readers like you to keep independent science journalism alive. If this reporting matters to you, please consider a donation (especially monthly).

More information: Sharafaldin Mohammed et al, Burned Area Over Africa Reduced by Shortened Dry Season, Geophysical Research Letters (2026). DOI: 10.1029/2026gl121751.

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