The memory chip shortage sent Micron stock up more than 7x. Natural gas shortage looks like memory 12 months ago.

On Invest Like the Best episode 483, investor Matthew Smith warned that the natural gas market looks like the memory chip market did about a year before its shortage-driven repricing. "Imagine being short memory a year ago or 18 months ago and finding out all of a sudden you're short memory. That is what this natural gas market looks like to us, not 2 years out, but 6+ months out." The memory shortage sent Micron stock up more than 7x, and Smith thinks gas is roughly 12 months behind that same setup.

The Counterparty Risk Nobody Priced In

Smith's core concern is that hyperscalers signing power contracts have not stress-tested the fuel side. "Counterparty risk isn't something we've really talked about during the last couple of years in the AI boom," he warned that natural gas could become "20, 30, or 40% of their cost of doing business" at exactly the moment they are supposed to hit profitability escape velocity.

He is skeptical of the fuel-cell workaround now being marketed to data center developers: "we are very cynical whether you can deploy fuel cells at scale because there isn't the gas in the system to power those 24/7, 365." The host's response reframed the problem as an efficiency race, noting that "performance per watt is probably a compute metric that we're gonna care more and more about."

Smith flagged engineering and construction firms trading at "25 times cash flow, which is a historically high multiple", warning that by 2029 or 2030 the ability to build more gas plants may hit economic and regulatory walls. His counsel was to pursue "accretive M&A to backfill and diversify" while the window is open.

Five Stocks Along the Gas-to-Power Chain

The five names below illustrate who sits along the supply chain Smith's thesis implicates. Henry Hub spot averaged $2.83 on July 13, 2026, and the EIA forecasts Henry Hub to average about $3.50/MMBtu in 2026 and $3.18/MMBtu in 2027, a level the futures curve does not yet price as a shortage.

Expand Energy

Expand Energy (NASDAQ:EXE) is the largest US pure-play gas producer post-Southwestern merger. Q1 2026 revenue was $4.40 billion with a $4.95/Mcfe realized price. CEO Mike Wichterich told analysts that "nearly 90% of expected U.S. demand growth can be served by our assets." Shares trade at a 7 trailing PE with an analyst target of $125.16. See EXE's Q1 8-K.

EQT

EQT (NYSE:EQT) reported Q2 2026 production of 634 Bcfe and raised full-year guidance by roughly 90 Bcfe. CFO Jeremy Knop said "our initial bull case of 10 Bcf per day looking more like the new base case" for power demand growth. EQT trades at a 9 trailing PE.

Williams Companies

Williams Companies (NYSE:WMB) is the pipeline layer. Q1 2026 adjusted EBITDA hit a record $2.25 billion, up 13% year over year. CEO Chad Zamarin noted the company has "grown gas demand by 50% over the last 10 years" with no new pipeline into New York or New England. Shares are up 23.81% year to date.

Cheniere Energy

Cheniere Energy (NYSE:LNG) exported a record 187 LNG cargoes in Q1 2026, raising 2026 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance to $7.25 billion to $7.75 billion. CEO Jack Fusco cited "the elevated volatility in global energy markets today" as the case for more capacity. Cheniere is up 35.75% year to date.

GE Vernova

GE Vernova (NYSE:GEV) makes the gas turbines. Q2 2026 bookings were $24.20 billion with backlog of $176 billion. CEO Scott Strazik confirmed a path to 30 GW of annual gas turbine output by 2030. GEV trades at a 32 trailing PE.

What to Watch

Smith's timeline is the tell. If the shortage he describes shows up in six months rather than two years, the market will reprice the entire chain from wellhead to turbine at once. If EIA's baseline holds, the memory analogy dissolves. Urgency tends to spur solutions before crisis prices arrive.

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