Severe thunderstorms may bring heavy rain, strong winds to Connecticut Tuesday. Here's the timeline

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Connecticut faces another round of potentially strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday, although exactly when the storms arrive may remain uncertain until they begin developing to the west.

The day may start quietly in many communities, but clouds and humidity will increase as a warm front approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could begin developing by late morning or early afternoon, followed by a greater chance of storms during the afternoon and evening.

The Storm Prediction Center placed most of Connecticut under a slight risk of severe thunderstorms, level 2 of 5. As of Monday morning. southeastern Connecticut generally is under a marginal risk, level 1 of 5. Damaging wind gusts are expected to be the primary severe weather hazard, although hail and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

One important question will be how much sunshine or filtered sunshine breaks through the clouds. Additional heating would make the atmosphere more unstable and increase the potential for severe thunderstorms. A cloudier or rainier start could reduce that threat somewhat, although strong winds above the ground still may allow storms to produce damaging gusts.

Torrential downpours and frequent lightning will accompany nearly any thunderstorm. The atmosphere will contain enough moisture to support rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour, potentially causing ponding on roads and localized flooding in poor-drainage areas. Most communities could receive 1 to 2 inches of rain through Wednesday, with isolated totals approaching 3 inches where multiple storms pass overhead.

Tuesday storm timeline

This timeline remains approximate. The eventual timing will depend on when storms initiate to Connecticut's west, how quickly they organize and whether earlier showers interfere with afternoon instability.

Before noon: Clouds increase and humidity becomes more noticeable. A few showers or thunderstorms may begin developing, particularly across western Connecticut.

Noon to 3 p.m.: Scattered storms become possible across western and central Connecticut. Many communities will remain dry, but any early storms could produce heavy rain and lightning.

3 to 6 p.m.: The threat should become more widespread. This may be the beginning of the primary severe-weather window, especially across western Connecticut.

6 to 9 p.m.: Showers and thunderstorms may cross additional portions of central and eastern Connecticut. Damaging wind gusts, torrential rain and frequent lightning will be the main concerns.

9 p.m. to midnight: Additional storms may continue, although the severe-weather threat gradually should become more localized around midnight. Scattered storms with heavy rain and gusty winds will remain possible.

After midnight: Periods of rain and a few thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday, but the likelihood of severe weather should greatly decrease.

Greater severe-weather threat to the west

The risk becomes more significant west of Connecticut. The Storm Prediction Center placed a large portion of Pennsylvania, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia and the Ohio Valley under an enhanced risk, level 3 of 5.

Numerous severe thunderstorms may develop there Tuesday afternoon before moving east into the nighttime hours. Some storms could organize into bowing lines capable of producing corridors of damaging winds, while more isolated supercells could bring large hail or tornadoes.

How those storms evolve to the west will ultimately help determine what reaches Connecticut later Tuesday.

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