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The NFL can be simple at times. You win, you get celebrated. You win in the playoffs, you get celebrated even more.
Yet, unlike the other major professional sports, the NFL operates with a small sample size. It's hard for a Major League Baseball team to overperform what it truly is over 162 games, but an NFL team can ride a wave of good luck for 17 games.
There's probably not a fan base more excited for the 2026 season than the Chicago Bears. Not the Rams, Seahawks, Patriots or anyone else. The Bears have been waiting a while for a winner, and last season was a blast. The Bears went 11-6, won the NFC North, had two unbelievable wins at home against the hated Packers, including one in the playoffs, and then a week later nearly knocked off a Rams team that everyone will be picking to win this season's Super Bowl. Caleb Williams had some incredible highlights that will be replayed for a long time. Ben Johnson looked like the genius head coach everyone thought he could be.
Nobody wants to call the cops to break up a party. It's fun to think that the Bears have now arrived and the exciting duo of Johnson and Williams will keep them relevant for the next decade and that the next step is being a true Super Bowl contender. And maybe that will happen.
It's also fair to wonder if what the Bears did was sustainable.
People can scream that stats are for losers, and those folks might want to skip ahead a few paragraphs. Because we're going to start the list of regression indicators the Bears will be battling.
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First, the Bears were an NFL-best +22 in turnover margin, which was five better than any other team and nine better than third place. That's almost impossible to replicate.
A team's Pythagorean win total measures how a team typically finishes given its point differential. The Bears had a +26 point differential and a three-win gap between their adjusted Pythagorean win total and actual win total, according to TheOddsBreakers.com. That was the highest mark in the NFL. Their point differential was third-best in the NFC North, and among all playoff teams only the Steelers and Panthers were worse.
The Bears had eight wins, including playoffs, in one-score games. A great record in close games can be a bit lucky and change quickly, as the Chiefs can attest. The Bears needed a blocked field goal to beat the Raiders, might have lost to the Giants at home had Jaxson Dart not missed the fourth quarter with a concussion (they trailed 20-10 when Dart was ruled out), needed a last-minute touchdown to beat Joe Flacco and the Bengals and barely beat other mediocre teams, like the Commanders and Vikings. The Bears had the seventh easiest schedule in the NFL last season (via DVOA), and this season it will be the sixth toughest (via SharpFootball.com).
DVOA had the Bears as the 16th best team last season. Net yards per play had them tied for 17th. The Bears were 11th in offensive success rate but 26th in defensive success rate. Pick an advanced stat and it will likely say that the Bears were closer to middle of the NFL pack than a true top 10 team.
Bears fans would probably argue that Johnson, Williams and some exciting young talent will keep the team moving forward. And it's a good argument. Johnson came in with a swagger and backed it up. Williams still needs to be more accurate, but the upside for the 2024 No. 1 draft pick is obvious after some thrilling moments and memorable comebacks last season. It wouldn't be a big surprise if he has an MVP season in his future. Young skill players like Luther Burden III, Rome Odunze and Colston Loveland should help keep the offense running smoothly for a few years.
That's part of what makes the NFL so interesting. Sometimes, teams like the 2025 Commanders (or the 2018 Bears, with Matt Nagy winning NFL Coach of the Year) can't fight the regression they're facing and crash hard. Other teams use a surprising breakout season as a springboard to bigger and better things. All of Chicago is hoping that this time, Bears success is here to stay for a while.
Offseason grade
The Bears needed help on defense, and did make some moves. Their one big signing was safety Coby Bryant and their first-round pick was on safety Dillon Thieneman. They'll replace Kevin Byard and Jaquan Brisker, who were solid last season and left in free agency. The Bears also lost linebacker Tremaine Edmunds but signed Devin Bush to fill his spot.
The Bears signed Bryant to a three-year, $40 million deal and that was the only free agent they signed for more than $10 million. Defensive lineman Neville Gallimore, cornerback Cam Lewis and Bush came on lesser deals and the Bears hope that pays off. One huge and underrated loss was center Drew Dalman retiring at age 27. Dalman was the No. 7 center in Pro Football Focus' grades. The Bears traded a fifth-round pick to the Patriots for center Garrett Bradbury and drafted center Logan Jones in the second round as potential replacements, but it could end up being an important downgrade. The Bears also traded receiver D.J. Moore, though he strangely was marginalized in Ben Johnson's offense last season. The trade made sense to get some draft picks and be rid of Moore's salary. Most of the Bears' moves were lateral, and it would have been nice to see some more upgrades on defense, particularly at edge rusher.
Grade: C
Quarterback report
There were two quarterbacks with an on-target percentage of less than 70% last season, according to Pro Football Reference. One was Caleb Williams at 69.8%. The other was J.J. McCarthy at 66.5%. Not good company for Williams to keep.
The Bears did have their share of dropped passes (Williams had the third-most dropped passes in the NFL, according to PFF), but PFF's adjusted completion percentage accounts for drops and Williams' mark tied for last in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks. He and C.J. Stroud both had an adjusted completion percentage of 69.4%.
The one thing keeping Williams from becoming a top tier quarterback is accuracy. He will always be held back a bit if he continues to miss as many throws as he has through two seasons. But Williams is young enough to make major strides in that area. If he does, Williams will not only give the Bears their first 4,000-yard passer (he was 58 yards short last season), he could end up being their first All-Pro quarterback since 1950.
Odds breakdown
From Yahoo's Ben Fawkes: "A pleasant surprise for bettors last season (10-7 ATS, over win total of 8.5), Chicago won't be sneaking up on anyone this season. However, despite a win total of 9.5, Chicago is favored to miss the postseason (-120 odds) and is the third favorite to win the NFC North behind the Packers and Lions. A first-place schedule is partially to thank, but also plenty of questions remain around a Bears defense that ranked 19th in defensive EPA per play, but 30th on D on non-turnover plays. Chicago led the NFL with a +22 turnover margin, which isn't likely to happen again. First-round pick Dillon Thieneman should help the back end, but will wide receivers Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III thrive in larger roles afforded to them via the D.J. Moore trade?"
Yahoo's fantasy take
From Yahoo's Scott Pianowski: "Ben Johnson was a miracle worker in his first Chicago season, orchestrating a shocking improvement. The Bears ranked 28th in points and 32nd in yards the season before Johnson, then rose to ninth in points and sixth in yards last year. Chicago's offensive players will be highly coveted this year, and even with the expected helium, I'll be chasing them, too. But perhaps we need to cool expectations on Rome Odunze, who admits last year's stress fracture in his foot has turned into something he has to manage moving forward. Teammates Colston Loveland and Luther Burden were drafted after the Johnson hire, but Odunze was inherited by the current coaching staff. On a team overflowing with target players, Odunze is a reasonable fade."
Stat to remember
A Week 17 prime-time game against the 49ers showed the deficiencies of the Bears defense. Chicago scored 38 points and still lost because the defense allowed 42 points and 496 yards. That was the Bears' worst game on defense, but it's not like that group was good most of the season. They were 25th in DVOA, 21st in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play and 26th in success rate allowed. The only thing that kept the Bears' defense afloat was its 33 takeaways, which led the NFL and is very unlikely to repeat. And while there were changes on defense, there weren't many obvious upgrades. Chicago had a big need at edge rusher opposite Montez Sweat and never filled it. Perhaps coordinator Dennis Allen can get more out of the group in his second season running it but it's hard to see the Bears being more than an average defense, at best.
Burning question: Will the Bears' offense run through a tight end?
The Bears surprised many draft analysts and took Colston Loveland over Tyler Warren as the first tight end off the board in the 2024 NFL Draft class, with the 10th overall pick. While Warren had some good games for the Colts, the Bears aren't regretting their choice.
Loveland didn't get off to a fast start, but a 58-yard touchdown in a wild 47-42 Week 9 win over the Bengals started a hot streak. Counting that game, Loveland had a 47-597-6 line in his last 10 regular season games. He added 12 catches for 193 yards in two playoff games. That's rare production from a rookie tight end.
The Bears have some exciting talent on offense. Luther Burden III had some good moments last season as a rookie and Rome Odunze, the ninth pick of the 2024 draft, could still break out. Chicago likes to run the ball, and D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai each averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry last season. They combined for 1,870 rushing yards. Ben Johnson has options when he calls plays, but it wouldn't be a surprise if Loveland was the team's best skill-position player this season.
Best-case scenario
Last season, Drake Maye nearly won MVP and took the Patriots to the Super Bowl. Caleb Williams was considered a better prospect than Maye in the 2024 NFL Draft class. While that doesn't mean everything, it shows what's possible for Williams. He has the potential to win MVP, especially with Ben Johnson calling plays and a good cast around him. If that happens, or even comes close, it probably means the Bears won the NFC North and have leveled up to be a Super Bowl contender. They were agonizingly close to making the NFC championship game last season, losing a tough overtime game to the Rams. Defensive fortunes can change dramatically from year to year, and maybe the Bears' defense can improve enough to be middle-of-the-road. The best-case scenario is likely tied to Williams taking a big jump and the offense being excellent, however. And that's clearly on the table.
Nightmare scenario
If the Bears fall apart, it's very likely because the defense wasn't good enough. They overcame a below average defense last season, but that's hard to maintain. It's also possible that Caleb Williams is simply an inaccurate quarterback. That can be hard to fix, and it's also something that could keep him from entering the truly elite tier over the long term. A year ago there was some pushback over the regression fears with the Commanders, with the argument being that Jayden Daniels could overcome it all. We saw how that turned out. If just a couple things turn harshly on the Bears, like turnover margin and their record in close games, they could take a pretty big step back. That doesn't seem like the likely outcome. But nobody thought at this point last year that the Commanders would go 5-12. The last time the Bears won the division and got their fans excited was in 2018, and they went the next six seasons without a winning record. It would be crushing to have a similar outcome this time.
The crystal ball says
The Bears weren't exactly frauds, after all. They played better late in the season, starting with a Black Friday win at the Eagles. They got some quality wins that lacked in the first half of the season, and their analytics improved too. That provides some optimism that they have some staying power. Caleb Williams is going to be better in Year 3, and while plenty of rookie head coaches have one big season and fade, Ben Johnson looks like a great hire. Still, those regression factors are real and numerous. Also, the defense is a major question mark. There will be some pullback. Yet, Chicago still has a good shot at a playoff berth and keeping their momentum going beyond this season, even if it doesn't come with a second straight division title. Perhaps what we saw last season was the start of the Bears ruling the NFC North for a while. But we'll need to see it again before completely buying in.
