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With two weeks until Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary, Representative Haley Stevens and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed are locked in a closely watched contest that has become a proxy battle between the party’s establishment and progressive wings. Both candidates argue they offer Democrats the best chance to defeat Republican Mike Rogers in November.
With Democrats eyeing a Senate comeback, Michigan is widely viewed as a must-win battleground, making the outcome of the primary especially consequential. The state backed President Donald Trump in two of the past three presidential elections, but Democrats have continued to notch major statewide victories, emphasizing Michigan’s status as one of the nation’s most closely divided battlegrounds.
Michigan’s unpredictable voting patterns have made the race especially difficult to forecast. Whitt Kilburn, a political science professor at Grand Valley State University, told Newsweek, “Regarding the conventional wisdom on Michigan voters, all bets are off.”
“Who a ‘likely Democratic primary voter’ is, who will turnout in November, or what policies count as electable, these questions are all less settled than usual in Michigan,” Kilburn said, citing education, gender, race, ideology, “Israel and forever wars” among the factors shaping voter behavior.
“Haley Stevens is the strongest candidate to defeat Mike Rogers in November, and Republicans know it,” Joetta Appiah, spokeswoman for Stevens’ campaign, told Newsweek in part in an email.
The winner of the August 4 Democratic primary is expected to face Rogers in November for Michigan’s open Senate seat, following Democratic Senator Gary Peters’ decision to retire. Democrats have held the seat for decades. The Cook Political Report rates the race as a toss-up.
Newsweek has reached out to El-Sayed for comment via email on Tuesday.
Michigan Senate Democratic Primary Race
The Democratic primary has narrowed into a two-candidate contest between Stevens and El-Sayed after state Senator Mallory McMorrow suspended her campaign earlier this month.
The contest has become a broader test of the Democratic Party’s direction.
Stevens has the backing of much of the party establishment, including Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, former Senator Debbie Stabenow and Peters, as well as PAC support such as American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) and affiliated ones like United Democracy Project.
El-Sayed, who ran unsuccessfully for governor in 2018, has emerged as the race’s leading progressive candidate, winning endorsements from Senator Bernie Sanders, Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and the United Auto Workers. This week, he secured an endorsement from Senator Elizabeth Warren.
If elected, he would be the first Muslim U.S. senator. El-Sayed is the former director of the Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services of Wayne County, a position which has informed his platform of Medicare for all.
The Electability Debate
The Democratic establishment argues that Stevens, who in 2018 flipped a GOP-held seat in the House of Representatives, would make a stronger candidate in November and would have a better chance of winning independents and moderate Republicans than El-Sayed.
Schumer, a New York Democrat and the Senate Minority Leader, told Punchbowl News earlier this summer that Stevens “has the best chance to win” and keep the Senate seat for Democrats. Stabenow echoed a similar sentiment, saying in May, “At this very critical time, I know she [Stevens] can beat Mike Rogers in the general election. The stakes have never been higher, and Haley Stevens is the right person at the right time for Michigan.”
Peters’ backing emphasizes the establishment argument that Stevens’ experience, name recognition and support from party leaders make her the safer choice in a battleground state that is often decided by narrow margins.
“Haley began her service to Michigan as a critical part of our team as President Obama and I fought to save 200,000 jobs — rescuing and helping the auto industry come roaring back. I’m proud that Haley was recognized as the most effective Michigan Democrat in Congress,” Peters said in a statement endorsing her this month.
Stevens’ campaign spokesperson told Newsweek, “Haley has a proven ability to earn support from Democrats, Independents, and swing voters who decide statewide elections, and GOP Senators and operatives are terrified to run against her – they’ve openly admitted they’d prefer to run against Abdul El-Sayed because they believe he gives Mike Rogers the best shot to win this seat and rubber stamp Trump’s agenda.”
Concerns over El-Sayed’s strength against Rogers in the general election have been in part fueled by fears among some party leaders that his support for Medicare for All and other progressive policies could make him more vulnerable, particularly among independents and moderate voters in a state often decided by narrow margins.
Progressives argue the opposite, saying Democratic candidates have struggled in recent years by failing to energize younger voters and parts of the party’s base, and that El-Sayed’s message is better suited to rebuilding that coalition.
On Monday, Warren posted a video endorsing El-Sayed, saying he is the “only candidate in this race not taking corporate money, and he’s fighting to get money out of politics altogether.”
She ended the video saying, “Abdul is the only candidate in this race who can build the grassroots movement needed to win in November. For money in your pocket, to get money out of politics and deliver ‘Medicare-for-all.’ Michigan, let’s get this done.”
Senator Chris Van Hollen also broke with top Democratic leadership in making his endorsement for El-Sayed in June. The Maryland Democrat said he believes El-Sayed is the “strongest” candidate to win the race and the one who is “willing to take on the status quo.”
He clarified, “When I say the status quo, I mean not just the lawless Trump administration, but take on the Democratic establishment that has not fought hard enough for working people.”
Ocasio-Cortez backed the Michigan progressive earlier this month, telling The New York Times, “Despite our ideological differences and whatever disagreements there are in the party, every single one of us sees this moment as existential. And I think many people are willing to put aside differences in order to give us the best chance at winning. And I think that Abdul gives us that right now.”
At a July 19 rally in Lansing, Ocasio-Cortez made the case that El-Sayed’s approach offers Democrats a stronger path in November, saying, “If you want to win a general election, we’ve gotta show that we’re not in cahoots with the people hurting us,” as she criticized corporate and outside spending in the race.
Progressives also think El-Sayed will have a better chance at securing votes from Arab Americans in Dearborn who declined to support former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 largely over the administration’s handling of the Gaza war. The war in Gaza, which erupted after Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, emerged as a flashpoint during the 2024 presidential election.
Following Hamas’ attack, which killed about 1,200 people and resulted in 250 hostages being taken, Israel responded with an intense military campaign in Gaza, killing over 73,000 Palestinians and causing mass displacement.
In Michigan, organizers encouraged Democrats dissatisfied with then-President Joe Biden’s handling of the conflict to vote “uncommitted” in the state’s presidential primary. More than 100,000 voters did so, underscoring divisions within the Democratic Party over U.S. policy toward Israel. Trump then narrowly flipped the state.
What Do Polls Show About Stevens and El-Sayed’s Chances Against Mike Rogers?
The latest survey from Quantus Insights showed a razor-thin margin in both hypothetical matchups, suggesting the race remains within the margin of error.
Stevens had a slightly stronger 1.4-point lead, winning 45.1 percent support to Rogers’ 43.7 percent. El-Sayed led the poll by 1.1 points with 45.2 percent to Rogers’ 44.1 percent, according to the pollster. It was conducted among 947 likely voters from June 29 to 30 and had a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
A Zenith Research poll, which surveyed 602 likely voters from June 11 to 14 and was sponsored by a pro-El-Sayed PAC, showed El-Sayed in a slightly stronger position.
In that poll, 45 percent of respondents said they would support El-Sayed, while 42 percent said they would cast their ballot for Rogers. Meanwhile, Stevens’ support stood at 43 percent against Rogers’ 42 percent. It had a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.
A Mitchell Research & Communications poll showed El-Sayed leading by 5 points, with 47 percent to Rogers’ 42 percent. Meanwhile, Rogers held a lead against Stevens with 45 percent support to the Democratic candidate’s 41 percent. It surveyed 827 likely voters from June 11 to 13.
Prediction market Kalshi put El-Sayed’s odds at securing the nomination far ahead of Stevens, 82 percent to 20 percent, as of Tuesday. Polymarket gives El-Sayed a larger edge, 84 percent to Stevens 17 percent, as of Tuesday.
Michigan voters can begin casting ballots during early voting on July 25 before the August 4 primary, when they will decide the Democratic nominee for the open U.S. Senate seat.
What Polls Show in the Democratic Primary in Michigan
“The race is currently a dead heat according to the limited polling that has been done in the state,” Nicholas Valentino, research professor in the Center for Political Studies at the University of Michigan, told Newsweek.
A new poll released on Tuesday puts Stevens with a 7-percentage-point advantage over El-Sayed, at 48 percent to El-Sayed’s 41 percent. The poll conducted by Detroit News/WDIV-TV (Channel 4) surveyed 500 likely Michigan Democratic primary voters. About 10 percent of voters are undecided. The survey, conducted between July 8-11, occurred after the two faced off in a televised debate. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
A July Politico survey, conducted by Tavern Research, of 2,211 likely primary voters found that 42 percent of participants would back Stevens while 41 percent would support El-Sayed. About 18 percent of participants were undecided. The poll, which was conducted between July 6 and 7, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points.
A prior Quantus Insights poll conducted on June 29-30 showed El-Sayed with 41 percent support among Democratic primary voters, compared to Stevens’ 36 percent and McMorrow’s 8 percent. An additional 16 percent were still undecided about who they would support. The poll was conducted among 947 likely voters, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
Another recent poll from Tulchin Research gave the progressive candidate 46 percent of the vote compared to Stevens’ 27 percent and McMorrow’s 17 percent, while 9 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 500 likely Democratic voters from June 24 to 28 and had a margin of error of ±4.38 percentage points.
Michigan’s Voting Record
Michigan has long defied easy political labels, often producing razor-thin elections and unexpected outcomes.
In 2016, Democratic primary voters backed Sanders over Hillary Clinton before narrowly helping deliver the state to Trump months later. Since then, Michigan has alternated between Democratic and Republican presidential nominees, cementing its status as one of the country’s most closely contested battlegrounds.
Many of the races have been close. Trump won the state in 2024 with 49.7 percent compared to Harris’ 48.3 percent. Biden had won the state in 2020 with 50.6 percent of the vote, to Trump’s 47.8 percent. Trump narrowly secured the state in his first term in 2016, beating Clinton by about .20 percent.
Regarding state office, Rogers, who is a former congressman, was the Republican nominee in Michigan’s 2024 Senate race. He lost to Democrat Elissa Slotkin by less than a percentage point, an underperformance relative to Trump, Kilburn noted.
However, “he is better prepared in 2026. But this time around, the electoral environment will favor the Democrats,” Kilburn added, explaining that the independent and swing voters who backed Trump in 2024 “are less likely to show up and vote without a massive mobilization, and polls show many of these voters now disillusioned with Trump.”
Republicans have not held a Michigan Senate seat since Spencer Abraham left office in 2001. Michigan’s congressional delegation is closely divided, with seven Republicans and six Democrats in the U.S. House.
Fundraising In The Michigan Senate Race
The Democratic candidates have built markedly different fundraising coalitions. El-Sayed has relied almost entirely on individual donors, raising more than $4.5 million from contributors and reporting no PAC donations, while ending the latest reporting period with roughly $2.7 million in cash on hand, according to FEC filings.
Stevens entered the closing weeks of the primary with a larger war chest of about $3.4 million in cash on hand, but less in quarterly fundraising with $2.1 million in receipts, and has benefited from PAC support, reporting more than $680,000 in PAC contributions over the election cycle, per FEC filings.
However, outside of direct PAC donations, Stevens has benefited from PAC advertising. United Democracy Project, an AIPAC-affiliated PAC, has spent nearly $15 million on Michigan‘s Democratic Senate primary this year, with roughly two-thirds of the money backing Stevens and the remainder aimed at defeating Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed.
The group’s spending includes about $9.3 million backing Stevens and roughly $5.7 million opposing former public health official Abdul El-Sayed. The most recent July 10 filing reviewed by Newsweek shows that United Democracy Project most recently spent $30,129 in support of Stevens’ campaign and $54,314 against El-Sayed.
While the group has heavily spent in Michigan, a recent Stevens campaign ad paid for by United Democracy Project emphasizes Stevens’ auto work for then-President Barack Obama, and doesn’t touch on her support for Israel. A June ad showcased Stevens comments against then DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and calls for ICE accountability.
“It’s telling that, like elsewhere, the super-PAC ads in Michigan do not address Israel but feature the candidates on other issues. Continuing unrestricted military weaponry and blank checks from US taxpayers for Israel are not winning issues in Michigan” Kilburn told Newsweek.
Primary Election Outcome
For Democrats, the primary race is about more than who will face Rogers in November. The party is expected to need nearly every competitive seat if it hopes to reclaim the Senate majority. Republicans currently hold a 53-47 edge in the Senate, including two independents who caucus with Democrats, and Michigan is widely viewed as a must-hold seat if Democrats hope to reclaim the majority
With Michigan considered critical to any path back to a Senate majority, the primary has become a closely watched test of whether Democratic voters believe the party’s future lies with establishment-backed candidates or the grassroots energy fueling its progressive wing.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas
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