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The oceans are sending two unusual signals at the same time.
A rare Atlantic Niña has emerged in the tropical Atlantic while a Super El Niño continues to build across the equatorial Pacific — two opposite ocean patterns separated by thousands of miles, according to Severe Weather Europe.
At first glance, the two may seem unrelated. One features cooler-than-average waters in the Atlantic, while the other features warmer-than-average waters in the Pacific. But both can influence the atmosphere above them, changing where air rises and sinks, where storms develop and how large-scale weather patterns evolve.
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Forecasters are watching the unusual combination because the two patterns may reinforce a weather setup that is less favorable for Atlantic tropical activity as hurricane season ramps up.
"A rare Atlantic Niña has appeared in the tropics, just as a powerful Super El Niño continues to build in the Pacific," the Severe Weather Europe analysis states. "These two ocean anomalies may look opposite on the map, but their atmospheric impact is pushing in the same direction, creating an atmospheric shield for the United States hurricane season."
What is Atlantic Niña?
Most people are familiar with El Niño and La Niña, which occur in the Pacific Ocean and are part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO.
But a similar — though less influential — pattern can occur in the tropical Atlantic.
An Atlantic Niña develops when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Atlantic become cooler than average, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Those cooler waters can affect the atmosphere by reducing evaporation and limiting the amount of heat and moisture available to fuel thunderstorms.
During hurricane season, that matters because the tropical Atlantic acts as a breeding ground for many storms.
A cooler Atlantic can be associated with less atmospheric instability, more sinking air, reduced thunderstorm activity and a less favorable environment for tropical development.
Why is Atlantic Niña rare?
Atlantic Niña is much less common than its Pacific counterpart, partly because the tropical Atlantic is a smaller and more variable ocean basin, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
The Atlantic is constantly being influenced by changes in trade winds, ocean currents and rainfall patterns near the equator. When stronger-than-normal trade winds blow across the tropical Atlantic, they can push warm surface water away and bring colder water from deeper in the ocean toward the surface — a process called upwelling. That cooling can create the conditions needed for an Atlantic Niña.
What makes the current pattern unusual is the timing. The tropical Atlantic is typically one of the warmest regions of the world during the summer, when the ocean has stored heat from months of warming. Those warm waters provide fuel for thunderstorms and tropical systems during hurricane season.
A significant cooling trend in the tropical Atlantic during this part of the year is less common because it goes against the seasonal warming pattern. If the cooling persists and the anomaly remains below the threshold used to classify Atlantic Niña, it would rank among only a handful of similar events in the historical record.
How does El Niño affect hurricanes?
El Niño happens when a large area of the Pacific Ocean near the equator becomes warmer than normal, according to NOAA. That extra heat does not stay just in the ocean — it changes the way air moves around the planet. Because the ocean and atmosphere are connected, a change in one part of the world can influence weather patterns thousands of miles away.
During hurricane season, El Niño often works against Atlantic storm development. One of the biggest reasons is wind shear, which is when winds at different levels of the atmosphere blow in different directions or speeds. Too much wind shear can tear apart the thunderstorms that tropical systems need to grow, making it harder for storms to organize and strengthen.
El Niño can also create an environment where air is sinking over parts of the Atlantic. Rising air helps thunderstorms build, while sinking air acts more like a lid on the atmosphere, making it harder for storms to develop. Together, those effects can reduce the chances of a busy Atlantic hurricane season.
But El Niño does not mean hurricanes cannot happen. Some of the most destructive hurricanes on record have occurred during El Niño years. Instead, El Niño changes the overall odds, making the Atlantic generally less favorable for tropical storms and hurricanes to form or intensify.
Do Atlantic Niña and El Niño 'team up?'
Not exactly. Atlantic Niña and El Niño are separate ocean patterns that occur in different parts of the world, and one does not cause the other. But because both can influence how air moves through the atmosphere, they can sometimes create similar effects at the same time.
El Niño’s warmer-than-average waters in the Pacific can shift global wind patterns and change where air rises and sinks around the planet. At the same time, a cooler tropical Atlantic associated with Atlantic Niña can reduce the amount of heat and moisture available to fuel thunderstorms in one of the key regions where hurricanes develop.
When those signals happen together, they may reinforce an atmospheric pattern that is less favorable for Atlantic tropical activity. Higher pressure, more stable air and stronger winds that disrupt storms can make it harder for tropical systems to organize and intensify.
The two patterns are not “working together” like a team, but they can act like two separate influences nudging the atmosphere in the same direction. That is why forecasters are watching this unusual combination as hurricane season ramps up.
El Niño potential U.S. effects for fall 2026
A potentially powerful El Niño developing in the Pacific Ocean is drawing attention from climate scientists and long-range forecasters, who are watching how the pattern could influence weather around the globe.
Forecasters say it is still too early to determine exactly how the developing El Niño will affect the country, but past strong events provide clues.
- A wetter South and Southeast: Strong El Niño events often favor above-average precipitation across the southern United States. NOAA found that much of the Southeast experienced wetter-than-average winters during eight of 11 strong El Niño events analyzed.
- More rain and snow possible in California: California often sees wetter conditions during El Niño winters because the southern storm track can become more active. Those conditions can increase the likelihood that atmospheric rivers will bring heavy rain to Southern California and boost mountain snowfall, though scientists emphasize that every El Niño is different.
- Warmer, drier conditions in parts of the North and West: Strong El Niño events have historically favored warmer and drier conditions across parts of the Northwest, Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. That could prolong drought in some areas and increase wildfire concerns if dry conditions persist.
- Hurricane season impacts: El Niño can also influence tropical activity. In the Atlantic, stronger upper-level winds can disrupt developing storms, often reducing hurricane activity. In the eastern Pacific, El Niño typically creates a more favorable environment for tropical storms and hurricanes because of warmer waters, increased low-level spin and reduced wind shear.
- Hawaii wildfire concerns: El Niño’s impacts can also extend beyond the mainland. Increased summer rainfall can encourage grass growth, but if conditions later turn dry, that vegetation can become fuel for wildfires.
When does El Niño start?
El Niño doesn’t start on a fixed date. It begins when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific warm above average and stay elevated for several months, signaling a shift in both ocean and atmospheric patterns.
They also don’t occur on a strict schedule. They tend to emerge irregularly every two to seven years, depending on how ocean temperatures, wind patterns and broader climate conditions evolve.
Most El Niño events typically form between March and June, strengthen through summer and into fall, peak between November and January, and fade in late winter and spring.
Most major forecasting centers, including NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, now agree that El Niño has developed and is expected to strengthen through the remainder of 2026.
How long does El Niño last?
El Niño is usually a one-season-to-one-year event, not a multi-year climate phase like La Niña can sometimes appear to be in extended cycles, according to NOAA.
In the current outlook, conditions are already present. They are expected to strengthen during the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–27.
The latest synopsis from the Climate Prediction Center, published on July 9, says El Niño "will strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97% chance it will persist through early spring 2027."
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather across the nation as the Weather Connect reporter for the USA TODAY Network and contributes to Texas Connect coverage across the state. She can be reached at [email protected]. Follow her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: El Niño and Atlantic Niña are converging. What it means for weather
