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Residents along the Gulf Coast of the United States should keep an eye out for winds, rain and storm surge as Tropical Storm Bertha moves along the coast offshore, but a few science clues signal it's not likely to follow in the footsteps of any of the region's past major storms.
Bertha has a decidedly lopsided look on satellite images, and that could be a good thing for those in hurricane-prone regions. The fledgling storm is being affected by shearing winds expected to prevent it from building into the kind of hurricane that can sometimes quickly develop in the Gulf just offshore.
On the afternoon of July 21, Jamie Rhome, the National Hurricane Center's deputy director, said Bertha was likely at its peak intensity.
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Wind shear is expected to increase overnight July 21 and into July 22, said the National Weather Service office in New Orleans. Those winds are likely to cause Bertha to weaken, and keep the heaviest rain well to the south and southwest of the New Orleans region, the weather service said.
However, things are rarely certain in storm forecasting and Bertha is no exception, as it showed by gaining some stronger storms on the morning of July 21. Its track also shifted a bit northward overnight. While a chance remains that it could strengthen or bring worse impacts ashore if its forward track or intensity shift, meteorologists said chances are decreasing for winds or inland flooding.
What's the Bertha forecast?
Here's the general forecast, as of July 21, but the weather service warned the storm could weaken earlier than expected:
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding between the Mississippi/Alabama border and mouth of the Mississippi River, with peak values possibly up to 4 feet above ground level
- Isolated areas of flash flooding could occur through July 24 along the Gulf Coast from the western Florida Panhandle into southern Louisiana and the Upper Texas coast.
- Peak sustained winds of 45 mph as it nears the coast July 23 and 30 mph as it moves inland July 24.
Hostile conditions surround Bertha
The kinds of winds pushing Bertha's storms well to the south have been seen before, said Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami. "It's kind of a typical pattern for July, these bigger upper level ridges," Hazelton said. Because the shear is out of the north, most of the heavy rain or the "dirty side" of the storm is out over the water.
Bertha's structure depends on how much it interacts with the coast as it faces the increasingly hostile conditions.
Hazelton said battered Bertha looks similar to a poorly formed Hurricane Barry in July 2019.
Like Bertha, Barry also occurred during the beginning of an El Niño, but that El Niño was weaker, Hazelton said. El Niño is known for creating shearing winds that interfere with hurricane development in the Atlantic Ocean.
Bertha is likely getting a boost from the above-average sea surface temperatures in the Gulf, said Brian McNoldy, a hurricane scientist at the University of Miami, but it is facing "very strong vertical wind shear."
"Overall, a marginal storm in marginal conditions," McNoldy said.
Hurricane Hunter flights were scheduled for the afternoon of July 21 and on July 22.
While "a slight chance" remained July 21 that Bertha could crank up a little bit more, Hazelton said the wind shear is probably going to get a little worse.
Bertha predecessors
The name Bertha has been around for Atlantic storms for decades. Like many of its predecessors, Bertha isn't likely to be a memorable storm, but the previous storms also underscore a point often made by meteorologists. Even weak tropical storms can have deadly impacts.
- Nine deaths were attributed to Tropical Storm Bertha in 1990.
- The Bertha of 1996 became a Category 3 storm and made landfall over North Carolina and was blamed for at least a dozen indirect deaths in the United States.
- In 2008, Bertha became a Category 3 hurricane, and the longest-living Atlantic tropical cyclone on record.
- Two rip current deaths were attributed to Hurricane Bertha in 2014.
- The 2020 Bertha was short-lived and became a tropical storm just before making landfall over South Carolina.
Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about violent weather, climate change and other news. Reach her at [email protected] or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Tropical Storm Bertha is messy and lopsided. That's important.
