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An economist found some of the occupations most frequently labeled vulnerable have continued growing.
The standard approach to predicting AI’s impact on jobs involved building rankings based on how many of an occupation’s tasks could theoretically be handled by technology instead. Rankings like these consistently placed managers, financial analysts, and even lawyers near the top of the risk list, often above clerical positions like data entry or filing.
Last week, economist Gad Levanon put that theory to the test using government employment data from the past two years, and published his findings.
What he found contrasted what had been previously reported: Roles long flagged as high risk—like management, engineering, science, and law—have continued expanding, and in some cases picked up speed.
At the same time, occupations that weren’t considered especially vulnerable—including records clerks, bookkeepers, and customer service staff—are contracting rapidly.
To make sure clerical decline wasn’t simply a byproduct of those roles sitting inside shrinking industries, Levanon measured each occupation’s growth against the average growth across the industries where it’s found, isolating what belonged to the occupation itself rather than its surroundings.
The result held up: Clerical work isn’t shrinking because it happens to sit in a struggling sector. It’s shrinking inside sectors where managerial roles are expanding.
As unexpected as that seems, several experts say it’s consistent with how AI is actually being applied on the job. “There is a difference between the tasks a professional performs and the responsibility that comes with those tasks,” Rudy DeFelice, executive vice president and global head of AI strategy at Harbor Global, tells Inc. “AI currently automates portions of these jobs, but it does not automate the responsibility attached to them.”
This distinction between task and responsibility helps explain why some roles are shrinking faster than others. “The reason we’re seeing an immediate impact on clerical roles is that they involve standardized, rules-based processes that are relatively easy to automate end-to-end,” Sheldon Arora, CEO of StaffDNA, tells Inc. “As for managerial roles, companies won’t want to replace entire professions just because AI can complete part of the work.”
In Arora’s view, “AI shouldn’t and really can’t replace human-level work that involves thought leadership, building and managing teams, and profession-specific experience like law, medicine, and analysis. A minimal or even medium level of AI exposure in these professions doesn’t equal replacement.”
Looking further out, administrative work, customer support, documentation, and back-office functions are expected to continue to bear the brunt of this shift as experts project steady, incremental declines in those areas over the next three to five years as AI becomes more deeply woven into standard business operations.
That trajectory is already reshaping how workers view their own career security. “People are fundamentally questioning their place within organizations and where their future value lies, an uncertainty only intensified by the relentless wave of new technology,” Jeff McMillan, CEO and founder of AI advisory and education firm McMillanAI, tells Inc. “This anxiety is concentrating heavily within the middle management layer.”
As for the future, some believe roles rooted in judgment and interpersonal skills are better insulated from this kind of disruption. Kelly Heuer, vice president of learning at the Project Management Institute, says managers, analysts, and lawyers lean on skills that don’t erode with automation.
“Their roles don’t depend on technical skills but rather a high level of critical thinking, strong stakeholder management, and sharp human judgement that they practice every single day to help them navigate uncertainty and turn strategic priorities into impactful outcomes,” she says.
This post originally appeared at inc.com.
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